<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1870-9036</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El periplo sustentable]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El periplo sustentable]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1870-9036</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1870-90362017000200105</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La relación entre un proxi de la dinámica de la inseguridad pública y el turismo internacional a México: un análisis econométrico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The relationship between a proxy of the dynamics of public insecurity and international tourism to Mexico: an econometric analysis]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ceron Monroy]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hazael]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Silva Urrutia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Eliud]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Anáhuac Centro Anáhuac de Investigación en Turismo ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Anáhuac  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>33</numero>
<fpage>105</fpage>
<lpage>131</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1870-90362017000200105&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1870-90362017000200105&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1870-90362017000200105&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen De acuerdo con las estadísticas oficiales sobre turismo, hubo una actividad destacada para México en 2015. Esto se puede ver en el número de turistas internacionales y las divisas generadas. De hecho, México alcanzó la novena posición mundial en turismo internacional. No obstante lo anterior, el sector turístico sigue reconociendo a la inseguridad como una variable que afecta la llegada de visitantes internacionales. En este trabajo se utiliza la prueba de causalidad de Granger para entender el sentido de la relación: turismo vs inseguridad. También se estima un modelo VAR y posteriormente se aplicó la técnica de Impulso-Respuesta, a fin de conocer la periodicidad del efecto de la inseguridad. Como proxy del indicador de inseguridad se empleó el número de homicidios en México. Aunque la prueba de causalidad de Granger no es concluyente en todos los períodos de tiempo analizados, a través del análisis de la respuesta de impulso, encontramos que cualquier perturbación estadística en los homicidios produce un efecto negativo y significativo sobre las series de tiempo del número del turismo internacional. La inseguridad es un problema global, sin embargo en México su comportamiento tiene un efecto retrasado, que puede no detectarse en el momento sino en algunos meses más tarde.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract According with official statistics on tourism, there was outstanding activity for Mexico in 2015. This can be seen in the number of international tourists and the amounts spent. In fact, Mexico achieved the 9th worldwide position in international tourism. However Mexican tourism sector considers that insecurity affects the development of international travel. In this paper, the Granger causality test is applied to understand the sense of the relationship: tourism vs insecurity. We also estimate a VAR model and then applied the impulse response tool, in order to know the periodicity of the effect of the insecurity. As a proxy of the insecurity indicator we employ the number of homicides in Mexico. Although the Granger causality test is not conclusive in all the analyzed periods of time, through the impulse response analysis, we found that any statistical perturbation in the homicides produces a negative and significant effect over the time series of the number of international tourism. Insecurity is a global problem, nevertheless in Mexico its behavior has a delayed effect, which may not be detected at the time but some months later.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Turismo internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Homicidios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Causalidad de Granger]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo VAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Inseguridad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[International tourism]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Homicides]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Granger causality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[VAR model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Insecurity]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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