<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1870-6622</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[EconoQuantum]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[EconoQuantum]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1870-6622</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Guadalajara]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1870-66222021000100001</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18381/eq.v18i1.7223</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo estadístico para defunciones y casos positivos de COVID-19 en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Statistical model for deaths and positive cases of COVID-19 in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez-Valverde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gustavo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez-Valverde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Benito]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Montecillo ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Puebla ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>18</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>20</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1870-66222021000100001&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1870-66222021000100001&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1870-66222021000100001&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen:  Objetivo:  Utilizar un modelo estadístico de las defunciones y casos positivos de COVID-19 en México, para estudiar el comportamiento de la pandemia y contribuir a definir alternativas y políticas públicas que puedan mitigar el daño de la enfermedad en la sociedad.  Metodología:  Se empleó la información oficial de la Secretaría de Salud respecto del número de casos positivos de COVID-19 y del número de defunciones causadas por esta enfermedad en México.  Limitaciones:  Las limitaciones del estudio son el reducido número de datos y la posibilidad de fallas en la contabilidad de contagios y defunciones.  Originalidad:  Estima un modelo basado en los datos de la pandemia en México y su aplicación.  Resultados:  El modelo seleccionado fue el de Gompertz con cuatro parámetros.  Conclusiones:  El modelo muestra un adecuado ajuste y su utilidad en la aplicación en niveles regionales y futuros rebrotes de la enfermedad, para tomar medidas y elaborar políticas públicas que permitan aminorar el daño causado por la pandemia.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract:  Objective:  To apply a statistical model of the number of deaths and positive cases of COVID-19 in Mexico, to study the behavior of the pandemic in order to look for alternatives and public policies that can mitigate the impact of the damage of the disease in the society.  Methodology:  The official information provided by the Ministry of Health was used according to the number of positive cases of COVID-19, and the number of deaths caused by this disease in Mexico.  Limitations:  The limitations for this research are the reduced number of data and the possibility of failures in accounting for infections and deaths.  Originality:  It estimates a statistical model based on the data of the pandemic in Mexico and its application.  Results:  The Gompertz with four parameters model was selected.  Conclusion:  The model shows an adequate adjustment and its usefulness in its application at regional levels and for future outbreaks of the disease, in order to take measures and develop public policies that allow reducing the damage caused by the pandemic.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo de Gompertz]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[salud pública]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mínimos cuadrados no lineales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Gompertz Model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[public health]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[nonlinear least squares]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
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<ref id="B31">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vargas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ochoa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galindo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
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</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Coronavirus, hacia la siguiente pandemia del siglo XXI]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Ciencia]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>71</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>84-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
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</back>
</article>
