<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1870-6622</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[EconoQuantum]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[EconoQuantum]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1870-6622</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Guadalajara]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1870-66222019000200023</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación markoviana para identificar la dinámica y pronóstico del índice de producción industrial en México de 1980 a 2018]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Markovian modeling to identify and to forecast the dynamics of the industrial production index from 1980 to 2018]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabrera González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gustavo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[León Arias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adrián de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>23</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1870-66222019000200023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1870-66222019000200023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1870-66222019000200023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este artículo, por medio de modelación markoviana estudiamos la identificación de los estados estocásticos y pronóstico del índice mensual de producción industrial en México de 1980 a 2018. Dado que la muestra de datos está sujeta a fuertes fluctuaciones económicas y financieras, de una batería de modelos autorregresivos (lineales y con parámetros markovianos de cambio de régimen) se elige la especificación del modelo que mejor se ajusta a los datos a través del factor de Bayes. La selección del modelo provee evidencia de que las tasas de crecimiento mensual de este índice presentan parámetros (media y volatilidad) que cambian con el tiempo. Se lleva a cabo un ejercicio de pronóstico sobre el modelo markoviano de mejor ajuste a los datos. Para medir su capacidad de inferencia, se compara su eficiencia respecto de la especificación lineal autorregresiva en la misma serie de datos. Los resultados muestran que la media de los errores de pronóstico (dentro y fuera de la muestra) son menores en la especificación markoviana. La metodología bayesiana aplicada permite estimar de forma endógena e inferir de manera precisa incluso por problemas de identificación de parámetros markovianos, pequeño número de observaciones en regímenes, datos atípicos, número de regímenes e incertidumbre de parámetros sujetos a cambio de estado.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this article, by Markov switching modeling we study the identification of unknown states and forecasting of the monthly industrial production index of Mexico from 1980 to 2018. Given that the data-sample is subject to strong economic and financial fluctuations, from a battery of auto-regressive models (linear and Markov switching parameters), the specification that best fits to data through the Bayes factor is chosen. The model selection of the monthly growth rates index leads to parameters (mean and volatility) change over time. A forecast exercise is carried out on the Markovian model of best fit to data. To measure the accuracy on the estimation, its efficiency is compared with the linear auto-regressive models on the same data. Results provide evidence that the mean of the forecasting errors (in-sample and out-sample) are lower than those of the linear auto-regressive model. The Bayesian methodology applied allows to estimate endogenously and accurately infer, despite of identification problems of Markov switching parameters, small number of observations in regimes, atypical data, number of regimes, and uncertainty in parameters subject to switch.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Índice de producción industrial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[parámetros markovianos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis bayesiano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Industrial production index]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Markov switching]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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