<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1870-6622</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[EconoQuantum]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[EconoQuantum]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1870-6622</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Guadalajara]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1870-66222017000200047</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18381/eq.v14i2.7100</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[An Early Warning System for currency crises in Argentina and Brazil 1990-2009]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Un sistema de alerta temprana para crisis cambiarias en Argentina y Brasil, 1990-2009]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Boonman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tjeerd M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jacobs]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jan P. A. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kuper]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gerard H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Groningen  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Netherlands</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Groningen  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Netherlands</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>14</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>47</fpage>
<lpage>68</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1870-66222017000200047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1870-66222017000200047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1870-66222017000200047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstrac: The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has affected many regions including Latin America. This paper focuses on currency crises in Argentina and Brazil, the two largest economies in South America, and with a wide experience with currency crises. We estimate an Early Warning System, consisting of a static factor model and a multinomial ordered logit model, with monthly data for 1990-2007. Ex ante forecasts for 2008-2009 produce an increased probability of currency crises in the fall of 2008. Our model outcomes confirm that elements from earlier crises are useful to predict the currency crises during the GFC.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La crisis financiera mundial (GFC por sus signos en inglés) del 2007-2009 ha afectado a muchas regiones, incluyendo América Latina. Este documento se centra en las crisis cambiarias en Argentina y Brasil, las dos economías más grandes de Sudamérica, y con una amplia experiencia con crisis cambiarias. Estimamos un sistema de alerta temprana, que consiste en un modelo estático de factores y un modelo logit multinomial ordenado, con datos mensuales de 1990 a 2007. Predicciones ex ante para 2008-2009 producen un aumento de la probabilidad de crisis cambiarias en el otoño de 2008. Nuestros resultados confirman que elementos de crisis anteriores contienen información relevante para pronosticar las crisis cambiarias durante la crisis financiera mundial.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Global financial crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[currency crises]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[early warning systems]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Latin America]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[static factor model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ordered logit model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C25]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G01]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[N26]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Crisis financiera mundial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crisis monetarias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sistemas de alerta temprana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[América Latina]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo de factores estáticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo logit ordenado]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C25]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G01]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[N26]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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