<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-952X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Economía UNAM]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Economía UNAM]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-952X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-952X2016000200061</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Triple arbitraje, expectativas y crecimiento económico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Triple arbitration, expectations and economic growth]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ugarteche Galarza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oscar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto de investigaciones económicas Instituto de investigaciones económicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>38</numero>
<fpage>61</fpage>
<lpage>95</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-952X2016000200061&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-952X2016000200061&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-952X2016000200061&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este trabajo se verá un aspecto de la financiarización, el triple arbitraje. Este se define como la suma de movimientos de capital de corto plazo en América latina entre 2001 y 2014, inducidos por el manejo de la tasa de interés negativa por el FED en la primera década y media del siglo XXI y su impacto sobre tipos de cambio y los precios de las materias primas. Luego se revisará el impacto de las expectativas desatadas a partir de mayo del 2013, por el anuncio recurrente de parte del presidente del FED que va a terminar con las políticas de expansión crediticia pero no va a subir por ahora la tasa de interés. Eso lo veremos en los precios de las materias primas (específicamente petróleo, cobre y trigo), el tipo de cambio y el crecimiento económico. La hipótesis es que los capitales se mueven por bajas de la tasa de interés de las economías maduras a las emergentes pero regresan por expectativas. De esta manera basta el anuncio oficial de una posible alza futura para producir en el presente un efecto sustancial en los tipos de cambio, tasas de interés y precios de los activos financieros en las economías emergentes, con las consecuencias derivadas en el crecimiento del PIB.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this work an aspect of financialization, the triple arbitration will be seen. This is defined as the sum of movements of short-term capital in Latin America from 2001 to 2014, induced by the management of the negative interest rate by the Federal Reserve in the first decade and a half of the 21st century and its impact on exchange rates and the prices of raw materials. Then appellant will check the impact of the expectations untied from March, 2014 by the advertisement on behalf of the President of the FED, Janet Yellen, who will not raise "now" the rate of interest in The United States. We will see it in the prices of the raw materials (specifically oil, copper and wheat), the exchange rate and economic growth. The hypothesis is that capital move for casualties of the interest rate of the mature economies to the emerging but return by expectations. In this way just the official announcement of a possible rise in future to produce a substantial effect on the exchange rates, interest rates and prices of financial assets in emerging economies, with consequences on the growth of GDP in the present.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Commercial Policy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[International Business]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Capital Movements]]></kwd>
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