L. R. Vega-González
Centro de Ciencias Aplicadas y Desarrollo Tecnológico (CCADET), UNAM Circuito Exterior S/N, Ciudad Universitaria, México, D.F., CP. 04510, 52-56228602 ext.1135, Fax 56228626 lrvg@servidor.unam.mx
Received: September 10th 2004.
Aprobado: October 27th 2005.
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Abstract
It is possible to characterize the different stages of history according the type of technology available. The last fifty years of human history have been referred to as "The Information Age" because of the great advancements and innovations of technology in electronics, computers and communications. The first part of this work presents a method based on the generation and exploitation of a database for the measurement of information technology gradients. The lack of the innovative data in earlier historic times is compensated by the consideration of the transport technologies as IT. The obtained result is a clear exponential growth curve. If the IT is driver of the global change, the notorious changes in the resulting graph can be related to the appearance of the Kondrattief cycles or "K" waves. Modelski [48] pointed out that the evolution of economic processes is closely related to the rate of growth in technological learning. According to the obtained results, the expected rate of change for IT innovation during the first two decades of the XXI Century will surely surpass the rate of change of technological learning. This will probably generate a non-sustainable system unless a change in the human consciousness occurs. Apparently, the sustainable evolution of the world system will depend on the appropriate technological selections, provoking the adjustment of innovation gradients to the rates of technological learning within the next generational cycles.
Keywords: Technology Rate of Change, Information Technologies, "K" Waves.
Resumen
Es posible caracterizar las diferentes etapas de la historia de acuerdo con el tipo de tecnología disponible. Los últimos cincuenta años de la historia humana han sido referidos como "la era de la información", debido a los grandes avances e innovaciones en las tecnologías de la electrónica, las computadoras y las comunicaciones. La primera parte de este trabajo presenta un método basado en la generación y explotación de una base de datos para la medición de los gradientes de las tecnologías de la información (TI's).
La falta de datos sobre las innovaciones en tecnologías de la información en épocas tempranas de la historia humana se compensa cuando consideramos las tecnologías de transporte como TI's. El resultado obtenido es una clara curva exponencial. Si las TI's son impulsoras del cambio global, los notorios cambios en la gráfica pueden relacionarse con la aparición de los ciclos de Kondratieff u ondas "K". Modelski [39] señaló que la evolución de los procesos económicos esta muy relacionada con la tasa de cambio del aprendizaje tecnológico. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, la tasa de cambio esperada para la innovación de las TI 's durante las dos primeras décadas del siglo XXI, seguramente sobrepasará la tasa de cambio del aprendizaje tecnológico. Esto, probablemente, generará un sistema no sostenible a menos que ocurra un cambio en la conciencia humana. Aparentemente la evolución sostenible del sistema mundial dependerá de la selección de las tecnologías apropiadas, lo que provocará el ajuste de los gradientes de innovación a las tasas de aprendizaje tecnológico dentro de los siguientes ciclos generacionales.
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