<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462025000400006</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v20i4.924</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Una evaluación de la regla de retiro del 4% para los ahorros pensionarios en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[An evaluation of the 4% withdrawal rule for pension savings in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Flores Curiel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462025000400006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462025000400006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462025000400006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El trabajo tiene como objetivo evaluar la regla de retiro del 4% para los fondos personales de ahorros pensionarios en México. Metodología: Se llevan a cabo simulaciones de Monte Carlo con base en las distribuciones de los rendimientos reales mensuales de acciones y bonos (1989-2023). Resultados: Las simulaciones indican que se minimiza el riesgo de fracaso (es decir, que el fondo dure menos de 30 años) invirtiendo exclusivamente en bonos. Sin embargo, se requiere invertir en acciones para maximizar la probabilidad de alcanzar una meta de saldo final. Recomendaciones: Si la persona desea conservar al menos 50% del saldo inicial del fondo después de 30 años haciendo retiros, es recomendable invertir un 10% en acciones. Así, la probabilidad de fracaso es pequeña (0.02%) y, en el peor escenario, el fondo dura 29 años. Limitaciones e implicaciones: Las simulaciones no consideran aspectos como comisiones e impuestos. Por lo tanto, los inversionistas deben ser cautos. Originalidad: Los resultados contradicen los hallazgos del único estudio previo conocido para México. Conclusiones: Es relativamente seguro seguir la regla del 4% en México, invirtiendo una fracción pequeña del fondo en acciones.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Objective: Evaluating the 4% withdrawal rule for personal pension saving funds in Mexico. Methods: Simulations based on the distributions of monthly real returns of assets and bonds (1989-2023). Results: Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the risk of failure (that is, exhausting the funds before 30 years) is minimized by investing only in bonds. However, investing in assets is required to maximize the probability of achieving a final fund balance goal. Recommendations: If the person wants to keep 50% of the initial fund balance after 30 years of withdrawals, then it is optimal to allocate 10% of the fund to stock and the rest to bonds. This strategy implies a small probability of failure (0.02%), and, in the worst-case scenario, the fund lasts 29 years. Limitations and implications: Simulations do not consider fees and taxes. Hence, investors should be cautious. Originality: The results contradict findings from the only previous study about Mexico. Conclusions: It is relatively safe to follow the 4% rule in Mexico, allocating a small fraction of the fund to assets.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[simulations]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[portfolios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[withdrawals]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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