<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462023000100002</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v18i1.669</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Causalidad y acoplamiento cíclico entre variables macroeconómicas en la conformación de crisis financieras]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Causality and cyclical coupling between macroeconomic variables in the formation of financial crises]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cantú Esquivel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Josué Alan]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ríos Bolívar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Humberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez Preciado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ana Lorena]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>18</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462023000100002&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462023000100002&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462023000100002&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Objetivo: analizar los componentes cíclicos entre variables económicas cuyos acoplamientos instauraron los mecanismos de propagación y causalidad en la formación del ciclo económico de la economía estadounidense. Método: se utiliza la técnica de sincronización de fase en series de tiempo para los componentes cíclicos de las variables sumada a un análisis de causalidad con un modelo VAR (Vectores Autorregresivos). Resultados: se encuentran los mecanismos de propagación entre variables mediante la secuenciación de los ciclos, reflejando los impactos de las decisiones de política monetaria en la economía agregada, transmitiendo inconscientemente ineficiencias en el desempeño y comportamiento de variables financieras y macroeconómicas. Recomendaciones: implementar análisis de componentes principales para capturar mejor los mecanismos de transmisión de política monetaria. Limitaciones e implicaciones: la dinámica de ajuste cíclico no es del todo pertinente para ser modelada en sistemas lineales. Principal contribución: se expone evidencia de una fuerte relación en subsistemas cíclicos de variables y la dinámica de transmisión y causalidad cíclica, revelando la generación de periodos de crisis económicas y financieras debidos a las decisiones de política monetaria.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Objective: This work analyzes the cyclical synchronization among macroeconomic time series, whose phase couplings incidentally established the mechanisms of propagation and causality in cyclical oscillations of the variables and implicitly fostered periods of the economic and financial crisis in the American economy. Method: we use cyclical phase synchronization in time series in addition to Granger causality tests of VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive). Results: this research explains the mechanisms by which monetary policy decisions are reflected in the movements of macroeconomic variables and how its effects transmit inefficiencies in the performance and behavior of aggregate financial and macroeconomic variables, originating the &#8220;boom and bust&#8221; process in the US economy. Recommendations: strengthen the analysis through causal nested relationships in time series to capture the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. Limitations and implications: the dynamic adjustment is not pertinent for lineal systems. Main contribution: there is a strong relationship between cyclical subsystems of variables and the dynamics of transmission and cyclical causality is time variant, highlighting the beginning of economic-financial cycles.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclo económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crisis económica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crisis financiera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[causalidad entre variables]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sincronización de fase]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic cycles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economics crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[financial crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[variables causality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[phase synchronization]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arthur]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Complexity and the Economy]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<edition>Cuarta</edition>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Whiley]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baxter]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[King]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Review of Economics and Statistics]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>81</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>575-93</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bielecki]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Business cycles, innovation and growth: welfare analysis]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<page-range>1-49</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>BIS</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Whither monetary and financial stability? the implications of evolving policy regimes]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Borio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lowe]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<page-range>1-43</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Borio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Financial Stability]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>8</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>236-51</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cagliarini]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Price]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Exploring the Link between the Macroeconomic and Financial Cycles]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Reserve Bank of Australia]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Calderón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Crisis y ciclos económicos de México de 1896 al 2010: un análisis espectral]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Argumentos]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>70</numero>
<issue>70</issue>
<page-range>105-26</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Calderón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Integración económica, crisis económicas y ciclos económicos en México]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Conataduría y Administración]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>62</volume>
<page-range>64-84</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Calderón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cruz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Sincronización comercial e industrial en el TLCAN, un estudio de sincronización de fase]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economía: teoría y práctica]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>46</volume>
<page-range>5-40</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Claessens]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kose]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Terrones]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<page-range>1-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[No linealidad en los mercados financieros]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Politécnico Nacional]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gerlach]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Smets]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Contagious speculative attacks]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[European Journal of Political Economy]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>45-63</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hayek]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Money and Capital: A Reply]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The Economic Journal]]></source>
<year>1932</year>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>166</numero>
<issue>166</issue>
<page-range>237-49</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Heath]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Lo que indican los indicadores]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[INEGI]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kindleberger]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aliber]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Manias, panics and crashes. A History of Financial Crises]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<edition>Tercera</edition>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[New Jersey ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Wiley]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kose]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Otrok]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Whiteman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The American Economic Review]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>93</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>1216-39</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Liu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Measuring the degree of synchronization from time series data]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Europhysics Letters]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>68</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>19-25</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendieta-Muñoz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sündal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Business cycles, financial conditions and nonlinearities]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<page-range>1-36</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Minsky]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Stabilizing an Unstable Economy]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
<edition>Primera</edition>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Yale University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Razo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Crisis como consecuencia de inestabilidad financiera: Evolucio&#769;n de las desiciones individuales al comportamiento agregado]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Politécnico Nacional]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Predicción de crisis financieras a través de la volatilidad implícita del precio de las opciones, asumiendo distribuciones alfa estables]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Politécnico Nacional]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Toda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yamamoto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Econometrics]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<volume>66</volume>
<numero>1-2</numero>
<issue>1-2</issue>
<page-range>225-50</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
