<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462021000100004</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v16i1.563</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Dinámica anticipada del PIB trimestral en México ante shocks negativos derivados de factores debidos a la crisis sanitaria del covid-19]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Anticipated Dynamics of Quarterly GDP in Mexico in the Face of Negative Shocks Arising from Factors due to the Covid-19 Health Crisis]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabrera González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gustavo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[León Arias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adrián de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462021000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462021000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462021000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo presenta los efectos anticipados en la tasa de crecimiento del producto interno bruto (PIB) trimestral de México debido a perturbaciones (shocks) que se espera la afecten en los próximos trimestres, en el contexto de los impactos del covid-19. Con este objetivo, se identifica la especificación econométrica markoviana autorregresiva de mejor ajuste a los datos de la dinámica del crecimiento del PIB de Q1-1960 a Q4-2019, bajo la condición de cuatro regímenes diferentes, dados por cambios en la media y por la volatilidad de la tasa de crecimiento. Posteriormente se introducen shocks negativos que asimilan diversos efectos macroeconómicos derivados del impacto económico del covid-19. En este ejercicio de simulación, la tasa de crecimiento del PIB puede permanecer en recesión de dos a seis trimestres, lo cual depende de la magnitud y persistencia que podrían tener los shocks negativos y a los posibles efectos estabilizadores que incidirán en la producción en México. Esta contribución ofrece un modelo para cuantificar efectos macroeconómicos ante eventos significativos e inesperados, con la limitación de que tales eventos podrían alejarse de distribuciones de probabilidad convencionales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This article presents the anticipated effects in terms of Mexico´s Gross National Product (GNP) quarterly growth rates due to shocks which are expected to impact those quarterly growth rates in the context of the covid-19 macroeconomics impacts. As econometric procedures, we identify a Markovian autoregressive of best-fit to data on the dynamics of those quarterly growth rate from Q1-1960 to Q4-2019, under four statistical states, given by different means and volatilities in growth rates. After that, we introduce some negative shocks that are equivalent to several macroeconomic effects related to covid-19. Through this econometric simulation exercise, we found that the GNP growth rate could be negative during a period from two to six yearly quarter, depending on the magnitude and persistence of negative shocks and the eventual stabilizing effects that could occur in the Mexican economy. This contribution offers an econometric model to estimate the impacts of relevant and unexpected macroeconomics events even when such impacts could not be described under conventional probability distributions.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[PIB]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[parámetros markovianos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[economía mexicana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GNP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Markov switching]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexican economy]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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