<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462020000400685</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v15i4.497</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Short-Term Causal Relationships between the Oil Sector and Economic Growth in the Mexican Economy: FG-ARDL Approach]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Relaciones Causales de Corto plazo entre el Sector Petrolero y el Crecimiento Económico en la Economía Mexicana: Aplicación FG-ARDL]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castro Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Judith Jazmin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabrera Llanos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Agustín Ignacio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>685</fpage>
<lpage>708</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000400685&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000400685&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000400685&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This research aims to analyze the short-term causal relationships between the oil sector and economic growth, using two methodologies, the ARDL model and the proposal based on fuzzy logic, the FG-ARDL, Fuzzy Gaussian Autoregressive Distributed Lag. For this purpose, 59 variables of the oil sector and their relationship with the Global Economic Activity Indicator, and the corresponding indicator of primary, secondary, and tertiary activities, were analyzed in monthly format between January 1997 and December 2019. The FG-ARDL model achieved better estimates, identifying the influence of variables derived from the oil industry on economic growth with better precision. The main recommendation is to evaluate other economic relationships to verify the efficiency of the new methodology, in which the primordial limitation is its dependence to the ARDL method, so it does not provide new causal relationships. The most important conclusion is that the internal consumption of fuel and PEMEX Diesel are the key variables that drive short-term economic growth, this result is better observed in the proposed model.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La presente investigación tiene como objetivo analizar las relaciones causales de corto plazo entre el sector petrolero y el crecimiento económico; utilizando dos metodologías, el modelo ARDL y la propuesta basada en lógica difusa, el Autorregresivo de Rezagos Distribuidos Gaussiano Difuso FG-ARDL. Para ello se analizaron 59 variables del sector petrolero y su relación con el Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica, y el correspondiente indicador de actividades primarias, secundarias y terciarias, en formato mensual entre enero 1997 y diciembre 2019. El modelo FG-ARDL logró mejores estimaciones, permitiendo identificar con mayor precisión la influencia de las variables derivadas de la industria petrolera en el crecimiento económico. La principal recomendación es evaluar otras relaciones económicas para verificar la eficiencia de la nueva metodología, en la que la primordial limitación es su dependencia al método ARDL, por lo que no proporciona nuevas relaciones causales. La conclusión más relevante es que el consumo interno de gasolina y PEMEX diésel son las principales variables que impulsan el crecimiento económico de corto plazo, resultado que se observa de mejor forma en el modelo propuesto.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Oil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Sectoral Economic Activity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Fuzzy Logic]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Petróleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Actividad económica sectorial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Lógica difusa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Sector energético]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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