<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462020000300355</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v15i3.478</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Dynamic hedging of prices of Natural Gas in Mexico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Cobertura dinámica de precios del Gas Natural en México]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barrera-Rivera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roberto R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valencia-Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Humberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>355</fpage>
<lpage>374</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000300355&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000300355&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000300355&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The first-hand sale prices of Natural Gas (NG) in Mexico had a dynamic lagged relationship with international NG futures prices during the period of January 2012 to June 2017. Based on a hedging strategy which includes NG futures and using an MGARCH VCC model, conditional variances were estimated with 20 and 40 days of lag between the prices of NG Futures. Dynamic hedges of NG were calculated assuming theoretical futures prices of the US dollar in Mexican pesos. With the use of backtesting, it was found that the forecasts of optimal hedge ratios improve with short prediction periods and proximate observed data. The dynamic hedging model proposed can be extended to other fuel markets. The importance of hedging NG prices derives from the size of the market and the extent of the risks to which the market participants are exposed.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Los precios de venta de primera mano del gas natural (GN) en México tuvieron una relación dinámica, pero con retrasos, con los precios internacionales de los futuros de GN durante el periodo de enero de 2012 a junio de 2017. A partir de una estrategia de cobertura en la que se emplean futuros de GN y utilizando un modelo MGARCH VCC para estimar las variaciones condicionales con retrasos de 20 y 40 días de los precios de los futuros, se muestra cómo se comportan las coberturas dinámicas de GN, suponiendo precios teóricos futuros del dólar estadounidense en pesos mexicanos. A través de una prueba retrospectiva, se halló que las predicciones de las razones de cobertura óptima mejoran con períodos cortos de pronóstico y períodos cercanos de observación. El modelo de cobertura dinámica propuesto puede extenderse a otros mercados de combustibles. Se destaca la importancia de la cobertura de los precios del GN dado el tamaño del mercado y la magnitud del riesgo al que se encuentran expuestos los participantes.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Natural gas prices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[first-hand sale prices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dynamic hedging]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[backtesting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precios del gas natural]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precios de venta de primera mano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cobertura dinámica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pruebas retrospectivas]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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