<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462020000100037</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v15i1.413</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Linear and nonlinear causality between marriages, births and economic growth]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Linear and nonlinear causality between marriages, births and economic growth]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Borrego-Salcido]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carmen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Juárez-Del-Toro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raymundo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cruz-Aké]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Salvador]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>37</fpage>
<lpage>55</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000100037&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000100037&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000100037&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This article represents the aim to identify the number of births as a forward-looking indicator regarding an economic crisis for Mexico and other countries with different levels of economic development. To state the supposed behavior of the number of births it was used simple graphical evidence, a Granger causality analysis and phase synchronization among a set of economic variables and life-long decisions such as having a baby and marriage. The results for all the studied countries showed an anticipated behavior from the number of births regarding important economic variables and some causal relations. The phase synchronization showed the absence of synchronization during crisis periods coinciding with the graphical evidence. Similar studies could consider other demographic variables such as divorce and suicide. Despite the availability and periodicity of data were the main limitations in this study and lead the selection of the studied economies, the phase synchronization had never been used with demographic variables before. Marriages result in not being relevant to determinate the number of births while the number of births resulted in a variable that fosters the GDP.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo representa el objetivo de identificar el número de nacimientos como indicador adelantado respecto a períodos de crisis para México y otros países con diferentes niveles de desarrollo económico. Para establecer el supuesto comportamiento del número de nacimientos, se utlizó evidencia gráfica simple, análisis de causalidad de Granger y sincronización de fase entre un conjunto de variables económicas y de decisiones de vida, tales como tener un bebé y matrimonio. Resultados para todos los países estudiados mostraron un comportamiento anticipado del número de nacimientos respecto a variables económicas importantes y algunas relaciones causales. La sincronización de fase mostró ausencia de sincronización durante períodos de crisis, coincidiendo con la evidencia gráfica. Estudios similares pudieran considerar otras variables demográficas como divoricio y suicidio. A pesar de que la disponibilidad y periodicidad de los datos fueron las principales limitaciones de este estudio y condujeron la selección de las economías estudiadas, la sincronización de fase nunca antes había utilizada con variables demográficas. Matrimonios resultó no relevante para determinar el número de nacimientos mientras que éste resultó ser una variable que impulsa el PIB.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C10]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G01]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[J11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[J13]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Granger causality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[phase synchronization]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[births]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[marriages]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic crisis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C10]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G01]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[J11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[J13]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[causalidad de Granger]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sincronización de fase]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[nacimientos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[matrimonios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crisis economicas]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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