<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-888X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[TIP. Revista especializada en ciencias químico-biológicas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[TIP]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-888X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Estudios Superiores Zaragoza]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-888X2008000100005</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Método para pronosticar la localización de un nuevo volcán al sur de la Ciudad de México]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Delgado-Granados]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hugo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villalpando-Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roberto &#1045;.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[México, D. F ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,UAM Azcapotzalco  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>5</fpage>
<lpage>16</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-888X2008000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-888X2008000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-888X2008000100005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El pronostico y predicción de erupciones o nacimiento de nuevos volcanes es una tarea difícil de abordar con precisión desde el punto de vista temporal y espacial. Existen estimaciones estadísticas del tiempo de retorno de erupción engrandes volcanes y campos volcánicos monogenéticos, pero la estimación del lugar donde podría nacer un nuevo volcán es un tema que no se ha abordado suficientemente por su complejidad. A diferencia de los grandes volcanes, donde se conoce la localización de su cráter, en los volcanes monogenéticos no se puede pronosticar el lugar donde se verificará la siguiente erupción. Los campos volcánicos manogenéticos san regiones cuyo condicionamiento geológico permite el nacimiento de nuevos volcanes, de acuerdo con una periodicidad propia de cada campo. Aunque los volcanes surgen en la intersección de fallas y fracturas que permiten el ascenso de los magmas, éstas están cubiertas por los productos eruptivos de volcanes previos. El período de retorno promedio para el surgimiento de un nuevo volcán en el Campo Volcánico Chichinautzin (CVC), al sur de la ciudad de México, es &lt;1700 años. La última erupción en el CVC ocurrió hace-1700-2000 años, según los estudios reportados hasta ahora. Esto hace que la región al sur de la ciudad de México sea propensa a registrar un evento eruptivo en el futuro cercano y la probabilidad de que ocurra éste crecerá con el tiempo. Por ello es necesario explorar formas de identificar las zonas más propensas para alojar la próxima erupción en la región, ya que esto permitiría prever los efectos de una erupción en la región más poblada del país. En este trabajo se prepone un método para identificar las zonas de mayor actividad tectónica en el CVC, vías potenciales para el ascenso de magmas, mediante el uso de patrones de distribución de las tasas de emisión de CO2 del suelo. Aquí reportamos dos zonas de emisión anómala de CO2: la más importante en magnitud se encuentra cerca del Colegio Militar y la segunda, de menor magnitud, cercana a Tenango, Estado de México. Estas anomalías están asociadas con rasgos tectónicos activos y son potenciales conductos para magmas en ascenso. Aunque no hay certeza de que así suceda, la información permite tener elementos para establecer planes de mitigación y da indicaciones de la actividad de las fallas de la región. Se requiere que los resultados que se presentan, sean verificados con más mediciones y, mediante comparación, se pueda observar la evolución de las emisiones de CO2 del suelo en el mediano y largo plazo.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Forecast and prediction of eruptions or birth of volcanoes is still a hard-to-tackle issue, temporally and spatially. Statistical estimates of return period for large volcanoes and monogenetic volcanic fields do exist. However, estimating the location for a new volcano to be born is a complex task. In difference with large volcanoes, for which the location of their craters is known, in the case of volcanic fields it is difficult to forecast where the next eruption will take place. Monogenetic volcanic fields are regions whose geologic setting allows the birth of new volcanoes according to a given periodicity. Volcanoes are born at the intersection of faults and fractures, and they are used by the ascending magmas. At monogenetic volcanic fields, eruptive products from previous volcanoes cover the traces of faults and fractures. The Chichinautzin Volcanic Field (CVF), south of Mexico City, has an average return period for new eruptions of &lt;1700 years. The last eruption in the region occurred ~1700-2000años years ago, according to the geologic studies reported so far. This implies that southern Mexico City is prone to witness a new eruptive event in the near future, and the probability for this to occur will increase with the time. Therefore, it is necessary to explore ways to identify the location of the next eruption for planning and prevention purposes to mitigate the effects of an eruption at the most populated region of the country. This study proposes a method to identify the most tectonically active zones in the CVF that might be used by ascending magmas, through the distribution patterns of the CO2 emission rates from soils of the region. We report here two zones of anomalous emission of CO2: the most important is nearby the Colegio Militar, and the second, less important in magnitude, near Tenango, Estado de México. These anomalies are associated to active tectonic features, which might act as conduits for ascending magmas, although no certainty can be claimed; they represent elements for mitigation planning. In addition, our results attest for activity of faults in the region. Further work is required to confirm the results presented here and, through the comparison with more measurements, observe the evolution of CO2 soil degassing in the mid- and long-term.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[CO2 en suelos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[emisión de CO2]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fallas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Sierra Chichinautzin]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[volcanismo monogenético]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CO2 from soil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CO2 emission]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[faults]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Sierra Chichinautzin]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[monogenetic volcanism]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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