<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-8421</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Economía, sociedad y territorio]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Econ. soc. territ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-8421</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio Mexiquense A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-84212024000300012</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22136/est20242073</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Planning of scenarios for sustainable development in Mexico by 2030 based on expert opinion]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Planificación de escenarios para el desarrollo sustentable en México hacia 2030 basado en opinión experta]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lengyel-Almos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Krisztina E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Querétaro]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>76</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-84212024000300012&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-84212024000300012&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-84212024000300012&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This article explores the future of sustainable development in Mexico by 2030 through scenario planning. The research is based on qualitative foresight methods including the Delphi method of consensus seeking, cross-impact analysis and scenario planning. Primary data stems from interviewing thirty experts. Results indicate a convergence in expert opinion concerning uncertainties, including heightened political risk, worsening public safety and sluggish economic growth. Using the cross-matrix methodology, four scenarios were developed which show different potential futures by 2030. The most likely scenario suggests that Mexico is unlikely to meet the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN Agenda 2030.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo explora el futuro del desarrollo sustentable México al 2030 a través de planificación de escenarios; basado en métodos cualitativos de prospectiva: el método Delphi, análisis de impacto cruzado y planificación de escenarios. Los datos primarios provienen de entrevistar a treinta expertos. Los resultados indican convergencia de opinión de expertos respecto a incertidumbres que incluyen mayor riesgo político, empeoramiento de seguridad pública y lento crecimiento económico. Usando metodología de matriz cruzada, se desarrollaron cuatro escenarios que presentan diferentes futuros potenciales para 2030. El más probable es que México incumpla los Objetivos de la Agenda 2030 de la ONU.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[sustainable development]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[scenario planning]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Delphi method]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[desarrollo sostenible]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[planificación de escenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[método Delphi]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alford]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[John]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Head]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Brian W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Wicked and Less Wicked Problems: A Typology and a Contingency Framework]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Policy and Society]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>397-413</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arango Morales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Xóchitl]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cuevas Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Verónica A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Método de Análisis Estructural: Matriz de Impactos Cruzados Multiplicación Aplicada a una Clasificación (MICMAC)]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sáenz López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Karla]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tamez González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gerardo]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Métodos y técnicas cualitativas y cuantitativas aplicables a la investigación en ciencias sociales]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<page-range>394-419</page-range><publisher-name><![CDATA[Tirant Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>ATLAS.ti Scientific Software Development GmbH</collab>
<source><![CDATA[ATLAS.ti Windows]]></source>
<year>2022</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Calva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Luis]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Mexican Economy in Its Neoliberal Labyrinth]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Trimestre Económico]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<volume>86</volume>
<numero>343</numero>
<issue>343</issue>
<page-range>579-622</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ha-Joon]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Bad Samaritans: Rich Nations, Poor Policies and the Threat to the Developing World]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Random House Business Books]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Charmaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Katy]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Belgrave]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Linda L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Qualitative interviewing and grounded theory analysis]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[The SAGE Handbook of Interview Research: The Complexity of the Craft]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<page-range>347-65</page-range><publisher-name><![CDATA[Sage Publications]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<collab>Coa (Americas Society/Council of the Americas)</collab>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[AMLO Presidential Approval tracker]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Infogram]]></source>
<year>2022</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Presidential Approval Tracker]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[De Klerk]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yvette]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ekow Manuel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michael]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kitada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Momoko]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Scenario Planning for an Autonomous Future: A Comparative Analysis of National Preparedness of Selected Countries]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Marine Policy]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<volume>127</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Esquivel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gerardo]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Los Impactos Económicos de La Pandemia En México]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economía UNAM]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>51</numero>
<issue>51</issue>
<page-range>28-44</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Glenn]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jerome C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gordon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Theodore J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Futures Research Methodology]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<edition>3</edition>
<page-range>399-433</page-range><publisher-name><![CDATA[The Millennium Project]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Godet]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michel]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[To Predict or to Build the Future?]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Futurist]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>46</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>46-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hernández-Blanco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marcello]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Costanza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Robert]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Anderson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sharolyn]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kubiszewski]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ida]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sutton]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paul]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Current Research in Environmental Sustainability Future Scenarios for the Value of Ecosystem Services in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2050]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Current Research in Environmental Sustainability]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>2</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>IMF (International Monetary Fund)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[World Economic Outlook 2021]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Managing Divergent Recoveries, IMF]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>IMF (International Monetary Fund)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Mexico: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kuribayashi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miki]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hayashi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Kazuhiro]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Akaike]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Shinichi]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Proposal of a New Foresight Platform Considering of Sustainable Development Goals]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[European Journal of Futures Research]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<volume>6</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-16</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lengyel-Almos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Krisztina E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kato-Vidal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Enrique L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Sustainable Development in México through the Eyes of Experts]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ 9thAnnual International Conference on Sustainable Development]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>New York </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López Obrador]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Andrés-M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[100 compromisos del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador a un año del triunfo]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Presidente de México]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moreno-Brid]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pardinas Carpizo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ros Bosch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jaime]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Economic Development and Social Policies in Mexico]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economy and Society]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>38</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>154-76</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mozuni]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mehdi]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wolfgang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jonas]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[An introduction to the morphological Delphi Method for design: A tool for future-oriented design research]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>303-18</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[O&#8217;Neil]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Shannon K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Mexico&#8217;s Democracy Is Crumbling under AMLO]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Council on Foreign Relations]]></source>
<year>2022</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2019-2024]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Diario Oficial de la Federación]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cámara de Diputados del H. Congreso de la Unión]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Popper]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rafael]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[How Are Foresight Methods Selected?]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Foresight]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<issue>6</issue>
<page-range>62-89</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rhydderch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alun]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Scenario Building: The 2x2 Matrix Technique: Prospective and Strategic Foresight Toolbox]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Futuribles International]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<page-range>1-19</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sachs]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jeffrey]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kroll]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Christian]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lafortune]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guillaume]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fuller]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Grayson]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wolem]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Finn]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Decade of Action for the Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainable Development Report 2021]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schoemaker]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paul J.H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[MITSloan Management Review]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>25-40</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Semarnat (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Nationally Determined Contributions Registry]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Government of the Republic]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>SHCP (Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[SDG Sovereign Bond Framework. United Mexican States Building Prosperity: Financing SDGs for an Inclusive Economy]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Gobierno de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>UN General Assembly (United Nations General Assembly)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>16301</volume>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[UN]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B29">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>UNDP-GCPSE (United Nations Development Programme - Global Centre for Public Service Excellence)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Foresight Manual: Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda]]></source>
<year>2018</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[UNDP]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B30">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>UN (United Nations)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Sustainable Development Goals Progress Chart 2020]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<page-range>1-7</page-range><publisher-name><![CDATA[UN]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B31">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>UN Desa (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2021]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[UN Desa]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
