<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-8421</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Economía, sociedad y territorio]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Econ. soc. territ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-8421</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio Mexiquense A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-84212019000200109</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22136/est20191324</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Cadenas de Markov espaciales para simular el crecimiento del Área Metropolitana de Toluca, 2017-2031]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Spatial Markov Chains to simulate the growth of the Toluca Metropolitan Area, 2017-2031]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio Mexiquense A. C.  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>60</numero>
<fpage>109</fpage>
<lpage>140</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-84212019000200109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-84212019000200109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-84212019000200109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar una metodología que simula la expansión de la mancha urbana y mostrar su aplicación en la Zona Metropolitana de Toluca. Se propone un método de proyección del crecimiento utilizando las Cadenas de Markov espaciales, y una regla de difusión aleatoria a nivel de pixel. Se detallan las métricas de bondad de ajuste para comparar la exactitud/inexactitud de las imágenes satelitales y los resultados de las simulaciones del modelo. El uso de las herramientas es robusto en el análisis espacial y permite construir un modelo predictivo alterno al enfoque tradicional de crecimiento.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The objective of this paper is to present a methodology that simulates the expansion of urban sprawl and show its application in the Metropolitan Area of Toluca. Using the Spatial Markov Chains and a random diffusion rule in pixel level, a growth projection method is proposed. The goodness of fit metrics are detailed to compare the accuracy/inaccuracy of the satellite images and the results of the Model simulations. It is shown that the use of tools is robust for spatial analysis, allowing to build an alternative predictive model to the traditional approach to growth.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[urban expansion]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatial Markov Chains]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[random diffusion rule]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[goodness of fit metrics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[expansión urbana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cadenas de Markov espaciales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[regla de difusión aleatoria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[métricas de bondad de ajuste]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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