<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7743</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ingeniería, investigación y tecnología]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ing. invest. y tecnol.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7743</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Ingeniería]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-77432017000300341</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Evaluación del impacto del cambio climático en los indicadores hidrológicos de una cuenca del centro de México con base en un ensamble de modelos climáticos y en el modelo hidrológico SWAT]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Evaluation of the climate change impact on hydrological indicators over a central Mexican basin based on an ensemble of climate models and SWAT]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Velázquez-Zapata]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Troin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Magali]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dávila-Ortiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rodrigo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de San Luis  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[San Luis Potosí ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Université du Québec École de Technologie Supérieure Departamento de Ingeniería de la Construcción]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de San Luís Potosí Facultad de Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>18</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>341</fpage>
<lpage>351</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-77432017000300341&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-77432017000300341&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-77432017000300341&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este trabajo evalúa la influencia de los Modelos Climáticos Globales (MCG) en la estimación del impacto del cambio climático en los recursos hídricos de una cuenca del centro de México. Las simulaciones climáticas provienen de cinco modelos del proyecto CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) bajo el escenario de emisión A2. Las simulaciones climáticas se usaron como datos de entrada del modelo hidrológico SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) para estimar el caudal en el periodo de referencia (1971-2000) y en el periodo futuro (2046-2065). El análisis de los cambios estimados en la cuenca de estudio muestra que todos los MCGs seleccionados proyectan en el futuro un incremento en el promedio anual de la temperatura máxima, con valores entre 2.12°C y 3.05°C. El cambio en la precipitación promedio anual es más variable, con valores entre -19% y+15%. Los resultados de la Señal de Cambio Climático (SCC) en los indicadores hidrológicos muestran diferencias considerables en la magnitud del cambio en el caudal estimado con los cinco MCGs. Por ejemplo, para el horizonte 2050 los MCGs estiman una SCC entre -30% y +4% para el caudal medio mensual. Los resultados evidencian la influencia del MCG en la variabilidad de la magnitud y la dirección del impacto del cambio climático en los indicadores hidrológicos a nivel cuenca.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This study assesses the influence of Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the evaluation of climate change impacts on water resources over a central Mexican catchment. The climate simulations came from five CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under the A2 emission scenario. The climate simulations were used to feed the SWAT hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the reference (1971-2000) and future (2046-2065) periods. The analysis of the projected climate changes over the central Mexican catchment shows that all the GCMs estimate an increase in annual maximum temperature between 2.12°C and 3.05°C for the 2046-2065 period. The projected changes in mean annual precipitation are more contrasted, with values between -19% and +15%. The results of the climate change signal on hydrological indicators show considerable differences of the magnitude in streamflow changes between the five GCMs. For example, the projected changes in mean monthly streamflow by the GCMs are expected to vary between -30% to +4% for the 2050 horizon. Our study emphasises that the GCMs lead to a high level of variability on both the direction and magnitude of the climate change impacts on hydrological indicators at the catchment scale.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MCG]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SWAT]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[impacto del cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GCMs]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SWAT]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change impact]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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