<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7425</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Papeles de población]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Pap. poblac]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7425</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados de la Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-74252021000400041</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22185/24487147.2021.110.30</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Proyecciones probabilísticas de la población argentina]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Probabilistic projections of the Argentine population]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Andreozzi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lucía]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Rosario  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>110</numero>
<fpage>41</fpage>
<lpage>78</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-74252021000400041&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-74252021000400041&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-74252021000400041&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este trabajo se aplican modelos para datos funcionales (MDF) a las cifras de mortalidad y fecundidad de Argentina para obtener sus correspondientes pronósticos probabilísticos y a partir de ellos, proyecciones de población. Este ejercicio resulta interesante frente las dificultades presentadas en la ronda censal 2020, ya que podría aportar cifras provisorias ante la espera de su realización definitiva. La aplicación de estos modelos a datos de Argentina en base a datos del periodo 1980-2010, año del último censo disponible, demuestra que cuando se cuenta con información para periodos no muy extensos de tiempo y una calidad aceptable de las fuentes de datos, se pueden emplear con éxito para realizar pronósticos probabilísticos. En segundo lugar, se aplica a datos de mortalidad la metodología alternativa de pronósticos coherentes con el fin de evitar una divergencia entre ambos géneros. Finalmente, a partir de los pronósticos de fecundidad (basados en dos hipótesis de fecundidad) y de mortalidad (independientes y coherentes) se elaboran pronósticos estocásticos de la población para hombres y mujeres. En todos los casos evaluados las cifras estimadas se encuentran por encima de las oficiales. Los resultados aquí obtenidos presentan valores coherentes con la teoría demográfica y principalmente garantizan la consistencia probabilística.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this study, models for functional data (MDF) are applied to the mortality and fertility data from Argentina to obtain their corresponding probabilistic forecasts and, from them, population projections. This exercise is interesting given the difficulties presented in the 2020 census round, as it could provide provisional figures pending its final completion. The application of these models to data from Argentina based on data from the period 1980-2010, the year of the last available census, shows that when there is information for not very long periods of time and an acceptable quality of the data sources, can be used successfully to make probabilistic forecasts. Second, the alternative consistent forecasting methodology is applied to mortality data in order to avoid a divergence between the two genders. Finally, from the fertility forecasts (based on two fertility hypotheses) and mortality (independent and coherent), stochastic forecasts of the population for men and women are elaborated. In all the cases evaluated, the estimated quantities are above the official ones. The results here are consistent with demographic theory and mainly correspond to probabilistic consistency.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fecundidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[datos funcionales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronósticos coherentes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fertility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[functional data]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[consistent forecasts]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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