<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7425</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Papeles de población]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Pap. poblac]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7425</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados de la Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-74252021000200011</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22185/24487147.2021.108.11</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia: analysis and forecast]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Escenarios alternativos para el desarrollo demográficode la Rusia rural: análisis y pronóstico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Viktorovna-Blinova]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tatiana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gennadievna-Bylina]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Svetlana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Institute of Agrarian Problems Russian Academy of Sciences ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Saratov]]></addr-line>
<country>Russian Federation</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>108</numero>
<fpage>11</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-74252021000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-74252021000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-74252021000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The purpose of the study is to discuss the alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia. The Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic has changed the demographic situation in Russia: mortality and natural population decline increased, while the birth rate decreased. Based on the cohort-component method, we projected the rural population size and age structure for the period 2024-2049. Six alternative scenarios were developed: three with zero migration (without taking into account the impact of migration changes on the rural population) and three with migration. Therefore, the migration outflow coefficient was included in the three forecasting scenarios. However, the inflow of some urban population to the countryside is not ruled out. The results show that the population of rural Russia will decrease from 37.3 million (2019) to 29.6-33.1 million people (2049). The age structure of the population will change, the demographic aging of rural areas will continue.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El propósito del estudio es presentar escenarios alternativos para el desarrollo demográfico de la población rural de Rusia. La pandemia del Covid-19 ha cambiado la situación demográfica en Rusia: la mortalidad y el declive natural de la población han aumentado y la tasa de natalidad ha disminuido. Hemos proyectado la población rural para el periodo 2024-2049 basándonos en el método de componentes de cohortes. Hemos construido seis escenarios alternativos, de los cuales tres asumen migración cero y tres tienen en cuenta el impacto de los cambios migratorios en la dinámica de la población rural. Por lo tanto, el coeficiente de emigración se ha incluido en las tareas de pronóstico en tres de los escenarios. Sin embargo, no descartamos la inmigración de parte de la población urbana a zonas rurales. Los resultados del pronóstico concluyen que la población rural de Rusia disminuirá de 37.3 millones (2019) a 29.6-33.1 millones de personas (2049). La estructura de edad de la población cambiará y el envejecimiento demográfico de las zonas rurales continuará.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Population]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecast]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Rural Russia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Población]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Escenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Rural Rusia]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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