<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7425</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Papeles de población]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Pap. poblac]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7425</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados de la Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-74252019000300175</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22185/24487147.2019.101.27</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Divorcios y crecimiento económico en México. Un pronóstico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Divorces and economic growth in Mexico. A forecast]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Emmanuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Modelística y Pronósticos Económicos Facultad de Economía]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>101</numero>
<fpage>175</fpage>
<lpage>212</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-74252019000300175&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-74252019000300175&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-74252019000300175&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El lento crecimiento de México es una gran preocupación en la academia y en los tomadores de decisiones. Varias hipótesis se han formulado para su explicación. Centramos nuestra atención en las deficiencias del capital humano generadas por la creciente tasa de divorcios. Arias et al. (2010) apuntan que el estrés social derivado del divorcio reduce el potencial intelectual y cognitivo de los niños y nosotros planteamos que también de los involucrados, por lo que en el largo plazo impacta negativamente la productividad factorial total, principal motor de crecimiento de largo plazo. Modelamos la tasa de divorcios en México (2005.Q1-2016.Q1) a partir de la hipótesis del &#8220;efecto independencia&#8221; con cinco modelos VEC(1). Encontramos que la Tasa de Participación Femenina, la Tasa de Condiciones Críticas de Ocupación de los hombres y que tener uno o dos promueven los divorcios.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The slow growth of Mexico is a major concern in academia and decision makers. Several hypotheses have been formulated for explanation. We focus our attention on the deficiencies of human capital generated by the increasing divorce rate. Arias et al. (2010) point out that the social stress derived from divorce reduces the intellectual and cognitive potential of children and we propose that also those involved, so that in the long term negatively impacts total factor productivity, the main driver of long-term growth . We modeled the divorce rate in Mexico (2005Q1-2016Q1) based on the &#8220;independence effect&#8221; hypothesis with five VEC (1) models. We found that the Female Participation Rate, the Critical Labor Conditions Rate for men and having one or two children promote divorces.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Divorcio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[productividad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio estructural]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cointegración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Divorce]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[productivity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[structural change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cointegration]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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