<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7425</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Papeles de población]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Pap. poblac]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7425</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados de la Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-74252019000100009</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22185/24487147.2019.99.02</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Proyecciones poblacionales y económicas bajo diferentes escenarios para México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Population and economic projections under different scenarios for Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendoza Ponce]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alma Virgen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Corona Núñez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rogelio Omar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galicia Sarmiento]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leopoldo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García Guerrero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Austria</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Procesos y Sistemas de Información en Geomática  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Geografía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de México Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Urbanos y Ambientales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>99</numero>
<fpage>9</fpage>
<lpage>43</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-74252019000100009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-74252019000100009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-74252019000100009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Los escenarios existentes que incluyen proyecciones poblacionales y económicas no permiten ser utilizados a niveles sub-nacionales. En países en desarrollo la información a nivel sub-nacional y la contextualización de escenarios es escasa. El objetivo de este trabajo es mostrar cómo pueden superarse estas limitaciones desarrollando: 1) proyecciones demográficas (probabilísticas y determinísticas) y económicas (probabilísticas) bajo diferentes escenarios y escalas temporales y espaciales, y 2) espacializar la distribución de la población a una resolución de un km2. Los resultados indican que para el 2050, la población mexicana podría ser entre 22 a 55 por ciento más grande que en el 2010 y tener un crecimiento del PIB entre 0.54 y 2.5 por ciento. Este estudio muestra cómo los escenarios socioeconómicos sub-nacionales son necesarios para la evaluación de la vulnerabilidad de los sistemas socio-ecológicos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Existing scenarios that include population and economic projections do not allow to be used at sub-national levels. In developing countries, information at the sub-national level and the contextualization of scenarios is scarce. The objective of this paper is to show how these limitations can be overcome by developing: 1) demographic (probabilistic and deterministic) and economic (probabilistic) projections under different scenarios and temporal and spatial scales, and 2) spatialize the distribution of the population at a resolution of one km2. The results indicate that by 2050, the Mexican population could be between 22 to 55 percent larger than in 2010 and have a GDP growth between 0.54 and 2.5 percent. This study shows how sub-national socio-economic scenarios are necessary for the assessment of the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Escenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio ambiental global]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demografía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[global environmental change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[demography]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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