<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7425</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Papeles de población]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Pap. poblac]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7425</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados de la Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-74252016000400109</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22185/24487147.2016.90.036</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelando la migración interestatal de México: cadenas de Markov estáticas versus Cadenas de Markov dinámicas con medias móviles]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modelling interstate migration in México: Static Markov Chains versus Dynamic Markov Chains with Moving Average]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Garrocho]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez- López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Álvarez-Lobato]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio Mexiquense  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>90</numero>
<fpage>109</fpage>
<lpage>144</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000400109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000400109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000400109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Se compara la precisión / imprecisión de las Cadenas de Markov Estáticas (CME) versus las Cadenas de Markov Dinámicas con Medias Móviles (CMD) para reproducir los flujos migratorios interestatales de México. En México aún no se ha realizado una comparación detallada de ambos modelos. La principal aportación de este texto es la manera sistemática como se compara la precisión de los dos modelos markovianos. Se detallan las métricas de bondad de ajuste para comparar la exactitud / inexactitud de las CME y las CMD. Cada métrica se orienta a una dimensión distinta del sistema migratorio: i. La Desigualdad migratoria se analiza con índices de Gini y Curvas de Lorenz; ii. La Competencia migratoria con índices de Herfindahl-Hirschman; iii. La Similitud Estadística con Coeficientes de Correlación de Pearson y de Correlación de Rangos de Spearman; y, iv. El Error Global con el error proporcional promedio. El modelo derivado de las CMD resultó ligeramente más preciso que el modelo estático para replicar los flujos migratorios interestatales observados de México y seguramente será aún más exacto conforme se disponga de más información y se amplíe el periodo de estudio.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This paper compares the accuracy / inaccuracy of Static Markov Chains (CME) versus Dynamic Markov Chains with Moving Averages (CMD) to reproduce interstate migration flows in Mexico. This comparison has not been done in Mexico. The main contribution of this paper is the systematic way the precision of the two Markov models is compared. We detailed the metrics of comparison. Each metric is geared to a different dimension of the migration system: i. Inequality of immigration is analyzed with Gini indexes and Lorenz curves; ii. Competition of migration is compared with the Herfindahl-Hirschman index; iii. Statistical Similarity is examined with Pearson correlation coefficients and Spearman rank correlation; and iv. The Global Error is estimated with the proportional average error index. The model derived from the CMD was slightly more accurate than the static model to replicate interstate migration flows observed in Mexico and will surely be even more accurate as more information becomes available and the study period is extended.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Migración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cadenas de Markov Estáticas versus Cadenas de Markov Dinámicas con Medias Móviles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Migration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Static Markov Chains versus Dynamic Markov Chains with Moving Averages]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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