<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7425</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Papeles de población]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Pap. poblac]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7425</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados de la Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-74252016000200113</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Aprobabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Un método probabilístico para la proyección de la migración internacional de México por edad y sexo]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García-Guerrero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>88</numero>
<fpage>113</fpage>
<lpage>140</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000200113&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000200113&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-74252016000200113&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: In this paper a method to model and forecast international immigration, emigration and net migration by age and sex is proposed. This method is based on Lee's 1993 model, which is an extension of the well-known Lee-Carter model (Lee &amp; Carter, 1992). The method proposed allows forecasting migration consistently with the whole population dynamic in the sense that it incorporates sustainable migration levels. This sustainability is incorporated through a logistic transformation of total migration, and it allows constraining the migration's fluctuation and thus avoiding negative values in a total population forecast. The method is applied to recent estimates of Mexican immigration, emigration and net migration by age and sex from 1960 to 2010 made by the Mexican Society of Demography (SOMEDE, 2011). The predictive power of the model is tested forecasting the period 1991 to 2010 and comparing the results with estimates for such period.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En este artículo se propone un nuevo método para pronosticar la inmigración, emigración y migración neta internacional. Este método esta basado en el modelo de Lee (1993) que a su vez es una extensión del bien conocido modelo Lee-Carter (Lee y Carter, 1992). El método propuesto permite pronosticar la migración consistentemente con toda la dinámica demográfica, en el sentido de que incorpora niveles de migración sostenibles. Esta sostenibilidad se incorpora por medio de una transformación logística de la migración total, lo que a su vez permite restringir la fluctuación de la migración y evitar así valores negativos en el pronóstico de la población total. El método es aplicado a las estimaciones recientes de la inmigración, emigración y migración neta mexicana por edad y sexo desde 1960 hasta 2010 realizado por la Sociedad Mexicana de Demografía (SOMEDE, 2011). El poder predictivo del modelo es probado pronosticando el periodo 1991-2010 y comparando los resultados con las estimaciones para dicho periodo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecasting international migration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[simulation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[time series]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international net migration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international immigration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international emigration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[demographic forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexican migration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico de la migración internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[simulación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[series de tiempo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[migración neta internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[inmigración internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[emigración internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico demográfico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[migración mexicana]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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