<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-3322</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Bol. Soc. Geol. Mex]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-3322</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Geológica Mexicana A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-33222017000100243</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Evaluación probabilística del peligro por lahares en el flanco NE del Volcán Popocatépetl]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Espinosa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diana Marcela]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Córdoba Guerrero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gustavo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Delgado-Granados]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hugo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Nariño  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Geofísica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>69</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>243</fpage>
<lpage>260</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-33222017000100243&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-33222017000100243&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-33222017000100243&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El presente trabajo muestra los resultados de la evaluación probabilística del peligro por lahares en la población de Santiago Xalitzintla, localizada en Puebla, en el flanco NE del volcán Popocatépetl, México, usando el programa para el modelado de lahares TITAN2F. Con el fin de evaluar la confiabilidad de su uso sobre un modelo de elevación, se compararon los pronósticos del programa con datos de campo del evento lahárico de 2001. Los resultados obtenidos con TITAN2F son comparables con la información generada por estudios de este lahar, permitiendo concluir que el modelado con TITAN2F es confiable. Esta investigación presenta una herramienta útil en el conocimiento del peligro por lahares, en la cual, además de presentar la probabilidad del área de afectación por inundación, se muestra la distribución de probabilidades para niveles de presión dinámica, parámetro útil en la evaluación de riesgos por flujos laháricos. Para realizar un análisis probabilístico, son necesarios un número de escenarios que sean estadísticamente representativos y abarquen todos los casos posibles. Con base en el registro de eventos históricos se definieron dos posibles fuentes para este tipo de flujos correspondientes a las barrancas Huiloac y Alseseca. En cada una de las cuencas se definieron los escenarios hipotéticos identificados por los rangos de condiciones iniciales (velocidad, concentración y volumen) que requiere TITAN2F. Para el análisis probabilístico se realizó un muestreo estratificado mediante el método Hipercúbico Latino (LHS), con el cual se obtiene una muestra representativa con cientos de combinaciones de las condiciones iniciales, las cuales se modelan con TITAN2F. El análisis probabilístico se hace mediante inferencia bayesiana, a través de rutinas de programación en OCTAVE. La distribución probabilística señala que las zonas comunitarias de Santiago Xalitzintla tienen una probabilidad cercana al 80 % de ser alcanzadas por el lahar, pero con bajos niveles de presión dinámica. Se identifica como zona crítica la desembocadura de la Barranca Huiloac en donde la probabilidad de que las presiones dinámicas superen niveles destructivos es alta.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This study shows the results of a probabilistic evaluation of laharic hazard to Santiago Xalitzintla, locality in Puebla, at the NE flank of the Popocatépetl volcano in México. The TITAN2F software was used for lahars modeling. The program forecasts were compared with data obtained in the field for the laharic event of 2001 in order to evaluate the reliability of its use on a digital elevation model. The results obtained with TITAN2F are comparable with information reported previously in other studies of this lahar; coming to the conclusion that modeling with TITAN2F is reliable. This investigation provides a useful tool for the knowledge of laharic hazards. Also, it shows the probability of the affected area by inundation as well as the probability distribution of dynamic-pressure levels, which is an important parameter for assessment risk in a lahar flow. To make a probabilistic analysis is required a number of statistically representative hypothetic scenarios, covering all possible cases. According to historical events recorded, two possible sources for a laharic flow were defined, and they correspond to the Huiloac and Alseseca gorges. Based on the geological information, the ranges of initial conditions that TITAN2F requires (velocity, concentration and volume) were defined for each one of the basins. A stratified sampling was carried out using the Latin Hypercube method (LHS). This method generates a representative sample of hundreds of combinations from the initial conditions, in order to modeling laharic events with TITAN2F. The probabilistic analysis was made through Bayesian inference, and programming routines in OCTAVE. The probabilistic distribution indicates that there is a nearly 80 % probability to be reached by lahars at community areas of Santiago Xalitzintla. However it is characterized by low dynamic-pressure levels. The final section of the Huiloac gorge was identified as a critical zone, where the probability that dynamic-pressures surpassing destructive levels is high.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Volcán Popocatépetl]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[lahar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[TITAN2F]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Santiago Xalitzintla]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[presión dinámica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[software de modelado]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Popocatépetl volcano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[lahar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[TITAN2F]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Santiago Xalitzintla]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dynamic pressure]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[modeling software]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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