<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-3195</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-3195</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Colegio de Postgraduados]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-31952018000701043</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Distribución potencial de 20 especies de pinos en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Potential distribution of 20 pine species in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aceves-Rangel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Méndez-González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García-Aranda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mario A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nájera-Luna]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Agraria Antonio Narro Departamento Forestal ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Buenavista Saltillo Coahuila]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Especies, Sociedad y Hábitat A. C.  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Apodaca Nuevo León]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico de El Salto División de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Durango]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>52</volume>
<numero>7</numero>
<fpage>1043</fpage>
<lpage>1057</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-31952018000701043&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-31952018000701043&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-31952018000701043&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Las especies de coníferas dependen en gran medida de las variables climáticas, pero su distribución se modifica por el cambio climático. Los objetivos de este estudio fueron modelar la distribución potencial de 20 especies del género Pinus en México, determinar qué variables climáticas que influyen en su distribución y establecer su perfil bioclimático. La hipótesis fue que las variables bioclimáticas predicen la distribución potencial de especies de coníferas. Un total de 10 222 registros, 19 variables bioclimáticas y tres topográficas se analizaron con el algoritmo de MaxEnt para generar el modelo de distribución potencial de cada especie. La validación del modelo se determinó acorde a curvas de respuesta (análisis de omisión/comisión) y sensibilidad Curva Operada por el Receptor (ROC) - área bajo la curva (AUC) y pruebas Jackknife para medir el efecto de cada variable. La prueba ROC mostró que las especies con pocos registros sobrestiman y subestiman la predicción. Las variables bioclimáticas y topográficas con mayor contribución en los modelos fueron altitud, Bio10 y Bio1 (Temperatura promedio del trimestre más cálido y Temperatura media anual, ambas en °C); pero las variables relacionadas con bajas temperatura, poca precipitación y exposición no explicaron la distribución de las especies. Las especies con superficie potencial mayor con probabilidad de 0.70 fueron P. montezumae, P. devoniana y P. pseudostrobus con 14 744.8, 14 436.1 y 11 594.8 km2. Los modelos de predicción generados son confiables pues los valores de AUC fueron superiores a 0.90. El ajuste de un modelo es dependiente del número de registros de las variables bioclimáticas que lo constituyen.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Conifer species largely depend on climatic variables, but their distribution is modified by climate change. The objectives in this study were to model the potential distribution of 20 Pinus species in Mexico, determine which climatic variables influence their distribution and establish their bioclimatic profile. Our hypothesis was that bioclimatic variables predict the potential distribution of coniferous species. A total of 10 222 presence records paired with 19 bioclimatic and three topographic variables were analyzed with the MaxEnt algorithm to generate potential distribution model of each species. Model validation was determined assessing their response curves (omission /commission analysis) and the sensitivity of their Receiver Operated Curve (ROC), area under the curve (AUC), and Jackknife tests to measure each variable effect. The ROC test showed that species with few records either overestimate or underestimate the prediction. The bioclimatic and topographic variables with the greatest contribution in the models were altitude, average temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio10) and annual average temperature (Bio1), both in °C; the variables related to low temperature, low precipitation and terrain aspect did not explain the species distribution. The species with the greatest potential surface area, with a 0.70 probability were: P. montezumae, P. devoniana and P. pseudostrobus with 14 744.8, 14 436.1 and 11 594.8 potential km2. The generated prediction models are reliable, since their AUC values were higher than 0.90. The model´s adjustment dependent on the number of records of the bioclimatic variables that constitute it.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[bioclimáticas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución potencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pinus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[bioclimatic]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[potential distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Pinus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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