<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-3195</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-3195</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Colegio de Postgraduados]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-31952016000600769</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Predicción del cambio de uso/cobertura arbolada en México a través de probabilidades de transición]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Prediction of land use change/forest cover in Mexico Trough transition probabilities]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torres-Rojo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Magaña-Torres]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Octavio S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Moreno-Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ México D.F.]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>50</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<fpage>769</fpage>
<lpage>785</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-31952016000600769&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-31952016000600769&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-31952016000600769&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo presenta un modelo de predicción del cambio de uso/cobertura del suelo a través de la proyección de matrices de probabilidades de transición. El modelo de predicción usa la información de cubierta forestal/uso del suelo generada por el INEGI en 1993 y 2000 y utiliza la información de 2007 para validar el modelo. Las coberturas en escala nacional (1:250,000) se cortaron por estado y se generó una matriz de probabilidades de transición de tipos de vegetación/uso del suelo por cada estado. Después, a través de sistemas de ecuaciones de modelos tipo logit, se relacionaron las probabilidades de transición con variables climáticas, físicas y socioeconómicas para explicar la dinámica de cambios de los bosques y las selvas del país. La metodología generada permite analizar los cambios de cada tipo de vegetación aislada en los usos diferentes, con lo que se mejora la predicción y el entendimiento de la dinámica de cambio de la cobertura del suelo. Esto permite identificar claramente los causales de deforestación y brinda información para desarrollar y focalizar mejores instrumentos de política pública vinculados con la reducción de la deforestación. Los resultados mostraron que las transiciones básicas de regiones arboladas a cultivos y pastizales siguen dinámicas diferentes en bosques que en selvas. Resulta notable que al identificar diferencias en las transiciones se pueden diferenciar condiciones en las que el cambio de uso puede ser persistente y en las que no lo es.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This article presents a prediction model for land use change/ forest cover through the projection of transition probability matrices. The prediction model uses the information of forest cover/land use generated by INEGI in 1993 and 2000, and uses the information from 2007 to validate the model. The covers at national scale (1:250,000) are broken off by state and a transition probability matrix was generated of the types of vegetation/land use for each state. Then, through a system of equations of logit models, the transition probabilities were related to climate, physical and socioeconomic variables, in order to explain the change dynamics of forests and rainforests in the country. This methodology allows analyzing the changes in each type of vegetation isolated from the different uses, with which the prediction and understanding of the change dynamics of land cover are improved. This allows clearly identifying the causes of deforestation and provides information to develop and focus better policy instruments linked to the reduction of deforestation. The results showed that the basic transitions of forest regions to crops and grasslands follow different dynamics in forest and in rainforests. It is noteworthy that when identifying differences in the transitions, conditions can be distinguished where land use change can be persistent and where it is not.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cambio de uso/cobertura del suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[deforestación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[matrices de transición]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos tipo logit]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Land use change/cover]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[deforestation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[transition matrices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[logit models]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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