<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-3195</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-3195</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Colegio de Postgraduados]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-31952016000400493</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Los determinantes del tipo de cambio real entre México y EE.UU. Un análisis de cointegración]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Determinants of the real exchange rate between Mexico and the United States. A cointegration analysis]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zavala-Pineda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. Jesica]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leos-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salas-González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. María]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Santiago]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. Andrés]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez-Olivier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo Centro de Investigaciones Económicas, Sociales y Tecnológicas de la Agroindustria y la Agricultura Mundial ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,CIESTAAM CIESTAAM ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,CIESTAAM CIESTAAM ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,URUZA URUZA ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>50</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>493</fpage>
<lpage>509</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-31952016000400493&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-31952016000400493&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-31952016000400493&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El Tipo de Cambio Real (TCR) es una variable macroeconómica que tiene implicaciones en el bienestar de un país por estar ligado a los precios externos, y se utiliza como herramienta de estabilización macroeconómica. En México hay pocos estudios con modelos analíticos que permitan la comprensión de los vínculos entre las variables que influyen en el comportamiento del TCR. En esta investigación se evaluó la capacidad explicativa de los Términos de Intercambio (TI), el Diferencial de Reservas (DR), el Diferencial de Productividad (DP) y el Precio del Petróleo (O) en el TCR entre México y EE.UU. El objetivo fue determinar a través del análisis econométrico el impacto de las variables fundamentales que afectan el comportamiento del TCR entre México y EE.UU. durante el periodo de 1980 a 2010, para proporcionar una base que permita una intervención gubernamental más acertada y contribuir a mejorar la alineación entre las políticas macroeconómica y sectorial. Variables reales se utilizaron en un modelo de función doble logarítmica (log-log o doble-log). Antes de especificar el modelo de regresión se analizó la importancia sobre el TCR de los TI, el DR, el DP y el O con la metodología de Engle-Granger y la prueba de causalidad de Granger. Los TI, el DR y el O fueron las variables que mostraron relación estable a largo plazo con el TCR. La estimación de los parámetros se realizó mediante mínimos cuadrados ordinarios, y el DR y el O fueron significativos; por cada punto porcentual que cambia el DR y el O, el TCR cambia en 0.85 % y 0.38 % ambos en una relación directa. La conclusión es que la política monetaria tiene impacto mayor en la determinación del TCR entre México y EE.UU.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The real exchange rate (RER) is a macroeconomic variable that has implications in the welfare of a country as it is the link to international prices, and it used as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization. In Mexico there are few studies using analytical models that allow understanding the links between the variables that influence the behavior of the RER. In this study we analyzed the explanatory power of the Terms of Trade (TOT), the Reserves Differential (RD), the Productivity Differential (PD) and Oil Prices (O) on the RER between Mexico and the United States. The objective was to determine through econometric analysis the impact of key variables that affect the behavior of the RER between Mexico and the US during the 1980-2010 period, that provide a basis for a more accurate government intervention and help to improve the alignment between macroeconomic and sectoral policies. We used real variables in a dual function logarithmic model (log-log or double-log). Before the specification of the regression model the importance on the RER of the TT, the RD, PD and O was analyzed following the Engle - Granger methodology and the Granger causality test. TT, RD and O were the variables that showed a stable long-term relationship with the RER. The parameter estimation was performed using ordinary least squares. The RD and O were significant; for each percentage point the RD and O change, the RER changed 0.85 % and 0.38 % each, both in direct relationship. We conclude that the monetary policy has a major impact on the RER determination of between Mexico and the USA.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cointegración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[diferencial de productividad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[diferencial de reservas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precio real del petróleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[términos de intercambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cointegration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[productivity differential]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[reserves differential]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[real oil price]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[terms of trade]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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