<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-3195</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-3195</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Colegio de Postgraduados]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-31952007000600663</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Índice de peligro de incendios forestales de largo plazo]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Long run forest fire danger index]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torres-Rojo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Magaña-Torres]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Octavio S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez-Fuentes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Grodecz A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas División de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ D.F.]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Valle de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>41</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<fpage>663</fpage>
<lpage>674</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-31952007000600663&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-31952007000600663&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-31952007000600663&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En este documento se describe un índice de peligro de incendios forestales de largo plazo. El índice se basa en el principio de que los incendios forestales siguen un comportamiento crítico auto organizado, el cual establece que bajo una amplia variedad de circunstancias, los incendios forestales mantienen una relación exponencial sobre varias órdenes de magnitud entre la frecuencia de ocurrencia y el área quemada. Se describe el principio de un comportamiento crítico auto organizado de los incendios forestales y, con base en los registros de superficie y número de incendios forestales por Estado en México de 1970 a 2005, se comprueba empíricamente que el número total de incendios forestales ocurridos por año en cada Estado guarda una relación exponencial con el área quemada. Este comportamiento se usa para definir un índice de peligro de incendios forestales a largo plazo. El análisis de los resultados muestra que los incendios ocurridos en cada Estado exhiben distribuciones de frecuenciatamaño que se aproximan a una distribución de potencia. La importancia de este resultado es que permite calcular índices de peligro de incendios forestales de largo plazo para cada entidad, índices que pueden tener una amplia variedad de aplicaciones en la planeación y ejecución de las actividades de prevención y combate de dichos siniestros.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: A description is made of a long run forest fire danger index. The index is based on the principle that forest fires follow a selforganized critical behavior, which establishes that under a wide variety of circumstances, forest fires maintain an exponential relationship over various orders of magnitude between frequency of occurrence and the burned area. A description is made of the principle of self-organized critical behavior of forest fires and, based on the records of surface and number of forest fires per State in Mexico from 1970 to 2005, it is proved empirically that the total number of forest fires occurred per year in each State maintains an exponential relationship with the burned area. This behavior is used to define a long run forest fire danger index. The analysis of the results shows that the fires occurring in each State exhibit frequency-size distributions which approximate a power distribution. The importance of this result is that it permits the calculation of long run forest fire danger indices for each entity, indices that can have a wide variety of applications in the planning and application of the activities of prevention and control of forest fires.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Comportamiento crítico auto organizado]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución frecuencia-tamaño]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fractales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[índice de peligro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Self organized critical behavior]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[frequency-size distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fractals]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[danger index]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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