<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-1079</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Gestión y política pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Gest. polít. pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-1079</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas A.C., División de Administración Pública]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-10792016000200415</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Ciclo político presupuestal en México, 1980-2014. Un enfoque econométrico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Political Budget Cycle in Mexico, 1980-2014: An Econometric Approach]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reyes-Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marlen R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mejía-Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pablo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Económicas Facultad de Economía]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Toluca ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>415</fpage>
<lpage>445</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-10792016000200415&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-10792016000200415&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-10792016000200415&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[El objetivo de este documento es determinar la presencia del ciclo político presupuestal en relación con las elecciones presidenciales de México durante el periodo 1980-2014. Para ello, se estiman modelos autorregresivos y de promedios móviles, extendidos para tomar en cuenta los efectos de factores económicos, para el gasto público total, el gasto público programable y los componentes de éste. Entre los resultados más importantes destacan que los factores económicos (medidos por la producción manufacturera) juegan un papel limitado en la dinámica del gasto y, más importante aún, que existe evidencia de ciclo político presupuestal en el gasto público total, así como en el gasto corriente y de capital, entre otros. Estos resultados reflejan conductas oportunistas de los gobiernos para mantenerse en el poder y el uso de recursos públicos para el beneficio de grupos políticos particulares.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[The aim of this paper is to determine the presence of political budget cycles related to the elections of presidents in Mexico over the period 1980-2014. To do so, autoregressive and moving average models, extended to take account of economic shocks, are estimated for the total public expenditure, the programmable expenditure as well as the components of the latter. Our results suggest that economic shocks (measured by manufacturing production) play a minor role in the dynamics of public expenditure and, more important, that political budget cycles are present in total expenditure as well as current and capital expenditure, among others. This evidence reflects opportunist conducts of governments to remain in power as well as the use of public resources to benefit specific political groups.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[gasto público]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclo político presupuestal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[public expenditure]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[political budget cycle]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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