<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-0471</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Madera y bosques]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Madera bosques]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-0471</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Ecología A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-04712018000300222</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21829/myb.2018.2431591</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling anthropic factors as drivers of wildfire occurrence at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación de los factores antrópicos como conductores de la ocurrencia de incendios forestales en la Reserva de la Biosfera de la Mariposa Monarca]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farfán Gutiérrez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michelle]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez-Salicrup]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diego R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Flamenco-Sandoval]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nicasio-Arzeta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sergio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jean-François]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez Ramírez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Isabel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guanajuato División de Ingenierías Departamento de Ingeniería Geomática e Hidráulica]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Guanajuato Guanajuato]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Morelia Michoacán]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Morelia Michoacán]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-04712018000300222&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-04712018000300222&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-04712018000300222&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Fire regimes in coniferous forests in Central Mexico have been severely disturbed by land use change and fire management activities. Hence, it is critical to assess the contribution of anthropic and environmental factors that drive the occurrence of fires in these forests. This information is essential for the effective planning of fire management and wildfire prevention policies. In this study, we identified the potential drivers of fire occurrence within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) and modeled their spatial pattern through generalized linear mixed models. We employed fire event data for five years (2009-2013) and the spatial distribution of anthropic infrastructure and biophysical variables such as forest biomass and slope. We found fire occurrence increased with total population and forest edge density. The derived spatial model showed an acceptable accuracy (AUC = 0.71) for fire occurrence based on 2014 and 2015 fire events used to evaluate the model. To improve the model, we suggest the incorporation of direct fuel measurements. From our analyses, we suggest to develop fire management guidelines particularly in sites with high population density and close to forest fragments within the MBBR.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Los regímenes de incendios en bosques de coníferas en el centro de México han sido severamente modificados por el cambio de uso de la tierra y las actividades de manejo de incendios. Por lo tanto, es crítico evaluar la contribución de factores antrópicos y ambientales que impulsan la ocurrencia de incendios en estos bosques. Esta información es esencial para la planificación eficaz de la gestión de incendios y las políticas de prevención de incendios forestales. En este estudio, identificamos los potenciales causantes de la aparición de incendios dentro de la Reserva de la Biosfera de las Mariposas Monarca (RBMM) y modelamos su patrón espacial a través de modelos lineales generalizados y mixtos. Utilizamos datos de eventos de incendios durante cinco años (2009-2013) y la distribución espacial de la infraestructura antrópica y variables biofísicas como la biomasa forestal y la pendiente. Se encontró que la ocurrencia de incendios aumentó con la población total y la densidad de los bordes del bosque. El modelo espacial derivado mostró una precisión aceptable (AUC = 0.71) para la ocurrencia de incendios basados en los eventos de incendios de 2014 y 2015 utilizados para evaluar el modelo. Para mejorar el modelo, sugerimos la incorporación de mediciones directas de combustible. A partir de nuestros análisis, se sugiere desarrollar pautas de manejo de incendios particularmente en sitios con alta densidad de población y cerca de fragmentos de bosque dentro de la RBMM.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[human factors]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[coniferous forest]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[generalized linear mixed models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatial probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[factores humanos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[bosque de coníferas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos mixtos lineales generalizados]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[probabilidad espacial.]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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