<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-0471</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Madera y bosques]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Madera bosques]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-0471</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Ecología A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-04712016000100125</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Cambios en la cubierta vegetal, usos de la tierra y escenarios futuros en la región costera del estado de Oaxaca, México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Land use/cover change, and future scenarios in the coastal region of Oaxaca state, Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leija-Loredo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edgar G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reyes-Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Humberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reyes-Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oscar]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Flores-Flores]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sahagún-Sanchéz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí Instituto de Investigación de Zonas Desérticas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara Centro Universitario de Ciencias Económico Administrativas Departamento de Políticas Públicas de la División de Economía y Sociedad]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>22</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>125</fpage>
<lpage>140</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-04712016000100125&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-04712016000100125&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-04712016000100125&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El estado de Oaxaca es considerado como uno de los hot spots mexicanos más importantes no solo por la enorme riqueza y biodiversidad que alberga, sino también, por la creciente transformación de sus bosques y selvas que amenazan la integridad y permanencia de estos ecosistemas tropicales. Los objetivos de este trabajo fueron analizar los cambios en la cubierta vegetal y el uso de la tierra en dos municipios de la región costera del estado de Oaxaca en el periodo 2000-2011, conocer sus causas y modelizar los escenarios futuros de dichas transformaciones al 2025. El estudio se basó en la comparación espacio-temporal de mapas de vegetación y uso de la tierra, derivados de la interpretación de imágenes de satélite Spot y Landsat ETM+. Una vez establecidas las tendencias de los cambios en la cubierta vegetal (2000-2011), se definieron los escenarios futuros y la proyección de los cambios en la cubierta vegetal al año 2025, utilizando para ello un modelo espacialmente explícito. Los resultados obtenidos indican que en once años en la región se deforestaron 18 403 ha de selvas, 369 ha de bosques y 421 ha de manglares. De continuar esta tendencia, para el 2025 se habrán perdido 37 937 ha de selvas, 650 ha de bosques y 885 ha de manglares. Ante este escenario es fundamental definir estrategias que permitan la conservación de los ecosistemas y al mismo tiempo mejoren las condiciones de vida de los habitantes de esta región.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Oaxaca state is considered one of the most important Mexican hot spots because of the huge richness and diversity it contains, and the increasing conversion of forests and tropical forest that threatens the integrity and stability of these tropical ecosystems. The objectives of this study were to analyze changes in land cover and land use in two municipalities of the coastal region of Oaxaca State for 2000-2011, to understand their causes and to model future scenarios of such transformations to 2025. The study was based in the spatial-temporal mapping of vegetation and land use, derived from satellite images Spot and Landsat ETM+. Once trends of changes in land cover (20002011) were established, scenarios to 2025 established by a spatially explicit model. The results indicate that 18 403 ha were deforested in the rain forests in eleven years, 369 ha of temperate forests and 421 ha of mangroves. If this trend continues in 2025, 37 937 ha of rain forests 650 ha and 885 ha of mangrove forests will be lost. Given this scenario it is essential to define strategies for the conservation of ecosystems and to simultaneously improve the living conditions of the inhabitants of this region.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio de uso del suelo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[deforestación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[dinámica ego]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[land use change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[deforestation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dinamic ego]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[modeling]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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