<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-0471</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Madera y bosques]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Madera bosques]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-0471</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Ecología A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-04712007000200029</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21829/myb.2007.1321227</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Distribución del cedro rojo (Cedrela odorata L.) en el estado de Hidalgo, bajo condiciones actuales y escenarios de cambio climático]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) in the Hidalgo state, under current conditions and scenarios of climate change]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Monterroso Rivas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro Ismael]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tinoco Rueda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Ángel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo Departamento de Suelos ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Chapingo ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>29</fpage>
<lpage>49</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-04712007000200029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-04712007000200029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-04712007000200029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Se obtuvieron las áreas climáticas potenciales de distribución del cedro rojo (Cedrela odorataL.) en el estado de Hidalgo bajo condiciones actuales, con información meteorológica de 1961-1990 como escenario base, y bajo escenarios de cambio climático obtenidos con los modelos GFDL-R30 y el HadCM3 para los años 2020 y 2050. Se aplicaron las tasas de cambio en temperatura y precipitación sobre las áreas de influencia climática delimitadas de acuerdo a Gómezet al.(2006). Se realizó un balance de humedad bajo condiciones actuales y de cambio climático aplicando la metodología de Thornthwaite modificada versión III (Monterroso y Gómez, 2003). Actualmente se reporta 9,8% de la superficie del estado con tipos de vegetación con los que se asocia el cedro rojo, y las estimaciones con las características climáticas del escenario base muestran que el 30,4% del estado presenta algún grado de aptitud para el desarrollo de esta especie. Los resultados del modelo GFDL-R30 indican un incremento en la superficie con algún nivel de aptitud, con respecto al escenario base, de 3,1% y 4,4% para el año 2020 y 2050, respectivamente. El aumento es diferencial dentro de las clases de aptitud. Para el modelo HadCM3 la superficie con algún nivel de aptitud disminuye 0,9% para el año 2020 y 0 ,2% para el año 2050. Sin embargo, el nivel de Moderadamente apto pasa de 10,5% en el escenario base a 0% y 1,3% para el año 2020 y 2050, respectivamente, ubicándose prácticamente todas las áreas en el menor nivel de aptitud.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The potential climatic areas for the distribution of red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) were obtained in the state of Hidalgo under actual conditions, with meteorological information of 1961-1990 as base line, and under climate change conditions wich were obtained with two models: GFDL-R30 and HadCM3 for two time scenarios (2020 and 2050). The adjustment rates in temperature and rainfall obtained for each model were applied on climatic influence areas delimitated according to Gómez et al. (2006). A soil moisture balance in the state&#8217;s surface was calculated under current and climate change conditions using the Thornthwaite, modified version III methodology (Monterroso and Gómez, 2003). The present percentage of the state surface with the vegetation types associated with red cedar is of 9,8% and the surface percentage estimated with some degree of suitability for this specie, using the climatic characteristics of the baseline scenario, is of 30,4%. The results of applied GFDL-R30 model shows an increment on the total surface with some degree of suitability with respect of the baseline scenario of 3,1% and 4,4% for the years 2020 and 2050, respectively, with a differential increment within the suitability classes. The surface estimated with some degree of suitability applying the HadCM3 model shows a decrement of 0,9% for the year 2020 and 0,2% for 2050. However, the class of Moderate suitable, change from 10,5% on the baseline scenario to 0% and 1,3% for the years 2020 and 2050, respectively, with almost all the areas in the lowest level of suitability.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Balance de humedad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cedro rojo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[zonificación agroclimática]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Water balance]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[red cedar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[agro climatic zoning]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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