<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0301-7036</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Problemas del desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Prob. Des]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0301-7036</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0301-70362021000100141</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2021.204.69737</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo insumo producto dinámico para una economía pequeña]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Dynamic input-output model for a small economy]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fuentes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Noé Arón]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez Pellégrini]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sarah]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de la Frontera Norte  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>52</volume>
<numero>204</numero>
<fpage>141</fpage>
<lpage>163</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0301-70362021000100141&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0301-70362021000100141&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0301-70362021000100141&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo aplicar la técnica de Simulación Dinámica (SD) al modelo insumo producto dinámico (SD/IP) diseñado por Johnson (1985 y 1986), que es una generalización del modelo insumo producto estático (Leontief, 1941) con énfasis en el desequilibrio económico. El SD/IP consta de un sistema de 4n ecuaciones diferenciales y 2n restricciones. Por ello, es poco práctico intentar alcanzar una solución analítica si no se simula numéricamente. Para calibrarlo y validarlo, el SD/IP empleó información de la economía mexicana. Se comprueba que los multiplicadores dinámicos son mayores que los estáticos debido al efecto acelerador. Asimismo, se valida la simulación del SD/IP porque el ajuste entre los valores actuales y las proyecciones de producción de 2013 hasta 2019 es razonable.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This article applies the Dynamic Simulation (DS)technique to the dynamic input-output model (DS/IO) designed by Johnson (1985 and 1986). The model is a generalization of the static input-output model (Leontief, 1941), with an additional emphasis on economic imbalance. The DS/IO consists of a system of 4n differential equations and 2n constraints. Therefore, attempts to model analytically are likely to be unsuccessful without numerical simulation. The DS/IO used data from the Mexican economy for calibration and validation. It was found that the dynamic multipliers are greater than the static multipliers due to the accelerator effect. The simulation of the DS/IO is also validated by the fact that the adjustment between current values and production projections from 2013 to 2019 is plausible.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo insumo producto dinámico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sistemas dinámicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[simulación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C22]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E16]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dynamic input-output model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[dynamic systems]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[simulation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ángeles]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Multiplicadores de producción, ingreso y empleo en la economía mexicana: un enfoque insumo-producto]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Ciencias y Humanidades]]></source>
<year>1991</year>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>33</numero>
<issue>33</issue>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cervantes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chiappa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nuno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Manual Práctico de Stella, software de simulación dinámica]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cordier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Uchara]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Weih]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hamaide]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[An input output economic model integrated within a system dynamics ecological model: feedback loop methodology applied to fish nursery restoration]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Ecological Economics]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>40</volume>
<numero>C</numero>
<issue>C</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Constanza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Social tramps and environmental policy]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Bioscience]]></source>
<year>1987</year>
<volume>37</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<issue>6</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dasgupta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mäler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The economics of non-convex ecosystem]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Folke]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carpenter]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Elmqvist]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gunderson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Holling]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Walker]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Resilience and sustainable developing building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[AMBIO. A Journal of the Human Environment]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>31</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Forrester]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Industrial Dynamics]]></source>
<year>1961</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[M.I.T. Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fuentes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brugués Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González-Kônig]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Modelo insumo producto regional dinámico]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista de Economía]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>84</numero>
<issue>84</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Sistema Mexicano de Cuentas Nacionales (SMCN). Matriz de Insumo-Producto 2013]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Sistema Mexicano de Cuentas Nacionales (SMCN). Producto Interno Bruto: Series desestacionalizadas 1994-2019]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Sistema Mexicano de Cuentas Nacionales (SMCN). Producto Interno Bruto: variación porcentual respecto al mismo trimestre de un año anterior 1994-2019]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jackson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Victor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Naqvi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Towards a stock-flow consistent ecological macroeconomics. WWWforEurope]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[WIFO studies]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johnson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[A continuous Leontief dynamic input output model]]></source>
<year>1985</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ EighthPacific Congress of the Regional Science Association]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>USA </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johnson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A dynamic input-output model for small regions]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Regional Studies]]></source>
<year>1986</year>
<volume>56</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johnson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bryden]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Refsgaard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alva Lizarraga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[A system dynamic model of agriculture and rural development: The TOPMARD core model]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ 107EAAE Seminar]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>Spain </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kozikowski]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Técnicas de planificación macroeconómica]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Trillas]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leontief]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The structure of the american economy, 1919-1929]]></source>
<year>1941</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Harvard University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leontief]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Dynamic analysis]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leontief]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chenery]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Clark]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Suesenberry]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferguson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grosse]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grosse]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Holzman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Isard]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kinstin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Studies in the structure of the american economy: Theoretical and empirical explorations in input output analysis]]></source>
<year>1953</year>
<page-range>53-90</page-range><publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Limburg]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[O'Neil]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Costanza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farber]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Complex systems and valuation]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Ecological Economics]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>41</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[San Isidro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. de J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El proceso de validación de modelos de simulación. Informe Técnico CIEMAT]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ciudad Universitaria, España ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Investigaciones Tecnológicas y Medioambientales]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wheat]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pawluczuk]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Dynamic regional economic modeling a system approach]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Economic Management]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>4</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Modelo de gestión de existencias de una empresa a través de dinámica de sistemas]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[España ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Jurídicas, Universidad de Jaén]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yamagushi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Step-by-step system dynamics modelling of sustainability]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ 19International Conference in System Dynamics Society]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>USA </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
