<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0301-7036</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Problemas del desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Prob. Des]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0301-7036</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0301-70362016000300161</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Los Fundamentales, las Posiciones Netas de los Especuladores y el Tipo de Cambio en Brasil]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="fr"><![CDATA[Fondamentaux, Positions Spéculatives Nettes et Taux de Change au Brésil]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Os Fundamentais, as Posições Líquidas dos Especuladores e a Taxa de Cambio no Brasil]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="zh"><![CDATA[&#25237;&#26426;&#32773;&#30340;&#22522;&#26412;&#38754;&#12289;&#20928;&#22836;&#23544;&#20197;&#24052;&#35199;&#30340;&#27719;&#29575;]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Fundamentals, the Net Positions of Speculators, and the Exchange Rate in Brazil]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez Vargas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Armando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arenas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guillermo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perrotini]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ignacio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas Facultad de Economía]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>47</volume>
<numero>186</numero>
<fpage>161</fpage>
<lpage>190</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0301-70362016000300161&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0301-70362016000300161&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0301-70362016000300161&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En el presente artículo analizamos el papel de los fundamentales y de las posiciones netas de los especuladores en la determinación del tipo de cambio de Brasil en el periodo abril 2002-agosto 2012. Con base en un modelo SVAR cointegrado, encontramos evidencia empírica que sustenta nuestra hipótesis de que el enfoque microeconómico (Evans y Lyons, 2002) y el modelo monetario (Bilson, 1978) de la determinación del tipo de cambio son consistentes. A diferencia de otros estudios empíricos, nuestro análisis demuestra que las posiciones netas de los especuladores y los fundamentales constituyen dos canales (de liquidez y de información) que contribuyen a explicar la dinámica del tipo de cambio de la moneda brasileña en el corto y en el largo plazo.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="fr"><p><![CDATA[Résumé: Dans cet article, nous analysons le rôle des fondamentaux et des positions spéculatives nettes dans la détermination du taux de change au Brésil pour la période avril 2002- août 2012. Sur la base d&#8217;un modèle svar co-intégré, nous trouvons une preuve empi rique qui étaye notre hypothèse selon laquelle l&#8217;optique microéconomique (Evans et Lyons, 2002) et le modèle monétaire (Bilson, 1978) de la détermination du taux de change sont cohérents. A la différence d&#8217;autres études empiriques, notre analyse démontre que les positions spéculatives nettes et les fondamentaux constituent deux canaux (de liquidité et d&#8217;information) qui contribuent à expliquer la dynamique du taux de change de la monnaie brésilienne à court terme et à long terme.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo: No presente artigo analisamos o papel dos fundamentais e das posições líquidas dos especuladores na determinação da taxa de câmbio do Brasil no período abril 2002 - agosto 2012. Com base num modelo svar co-integrado, encontramos evidência empírica que sustenta nossa hipótese que o enfoque microeconómico (Evans e Lyons, 2002) e o modelo monetário (Bilson, 1978) da determinação da taxa de câmbio são consistentes. Diferentemente de outros estudos empíricos, nossa análise demonstra que as posições líquidas dos especuladores e dos fundamentais constituem dois canais (de liquidez e de informação) que contribuem para explicar a dinâmica da taxa de câmbio da moeda brasileira no corto e no largo prazo.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="zh"><p><![CDATA[&#25688;&#35201;: &#22312;&#25991;&#20013;&#25105;&#20204;&#20998;&#26512;&#20102;&#25237;&#26426;&#32773;&#30340;&#22522;&#26412;&#38754;&#21644;&#20928;&#22836;&#23544;&#22312;2002&#24180;4&#26376;&#33267;2012&#24180;8&#26376;&#26399;&#38388;&#23545;&#24052;&#35199;&#27719;&#29575;&#30340;&#24433;&#21709;&#12290;&#22522;&#20110;&#26576;&#21327;&#25972;&#30340;SVAR&#27169;&#22411;&#65292;&#25105;&#20204;&#35777;&#26126;&#20102;&#22914;&#19979;&#20551;&#35774;&#65306; &#24494;&#35266;&#32463;&#27982;&#23398;&#35270;&#35282;&#65288;Evans y Lyons, 2002&#65289;&#19982;&#27719;&#29575;&#20915;&#23450;&#30340;&#36135;&#24065;&#27169;&#22411;&#65288;Bilson, 1978&#65289;&#26159;&#30456;&#31526;&#30340;&#12290;&#19982;&#20854;&#20182;&#22522;&#20110;&#32463;&#39564;&#30340;&#30740;&#31350;&#19981;&#21516;&#65292;&#25105;&#20204;&#30340;&#20998;&#26512;&#35777;&#26126;&#20102;&#25237;&#26426;&#32773;&#30340;&#20928;&#22836;&#23544;&#19982;&#22522;&#26412;&#38754;&#26500;&#25104;&#20102;&#20004;&#26465;&#28192;&#36947;&#65288;&#27969;&#21160;&#36164;&#37329;&#28192;&#36947;&#21450;&#20449;&#24687;&#28192;&#36947;&#65289;, &#32780;&#36825;&#20004;&#26465;&#28192;&#36947;&#26377;&#21161;&#20110;&#35299;&#37322;&#24052;&#35199;&#36135;&#24065;&#22312;&#38271;&#26399;&#21450;&#30701;&#26399;&#20869;&#30340;&#27719;&#29575;&#21160;&#24577;&#12290;]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of fundamentals and the net positions of speculators in determining the Brazilian exchange rate from April 2002 to August 2012. Based on a cointegrated SVAR model, we found empirical evidence to support our hypothesis that the microeconomic approach (Evans and Lyons, 2002) and the monetary model (Bilson, 1978) to determine the exchange rate are consistent with one another. Unlike in other empirical studies, our analysis demonstrates that the net positions of speculators and economic fundamentals constitute two channels (one liquidity-related, the other information-related) that can contribute to explaining the dynamics of the Brazilian exchange rate in the short and long term.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tipo de cambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cointegración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos monetarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[especuladores]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[taux de change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[co-intégration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[svar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[modèles monétaires]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="fr"><![CDATA[spéculateurs]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[taxa de cambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[co-integração]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[svar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[modelos monetários]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[especuladores]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[&#27719;&#29575;]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[&#21327;&#25972;&#24615;]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[&#36135;&#24065;&#27169;&#22411;]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="zh"><![CDATA[&#25237;&#26426;&#32773;]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cointegration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[monetary models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[speculators]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Tipo de cambio, posiciones netas de los especuladores y el tamaño del mercado de futuros del peso mexicano]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torre Cepeda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leonardo E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Provorova Panteleyeva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Olga]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economía Mexicana, Nueva Época]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>XVI</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
