<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0188-6649</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tópicos (México)]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tópicos (México)]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0188-6649</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Panamericana, Facultad de Filosofía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0188-66492023000100269</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21555/top.v650.2068</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La crítica de J. M. Keynes al proyecto de matematizar la probabilidad de J. Bernoulli]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[J. M. Keynes&#8217;s Criticism of J. Bernoulli&#8217;s Project of Mathematizing Probability]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aristimuño]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco Javier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Río Negro  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>65</numero>
<fpage>269</fpage>
<lpage>304</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0188-66492023000100269&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0188-66492023000100269&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0188-66492023000100269&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen. A cien años de la publicación de A Treatise on Probability, de J. M. Keynes, este artículo indaga sobre su relevancia en la historia del concepto de &#8220;probabilidad&#8221;. Tras repasar el surgimiento y evolución del concepto moderno de &#8220;probabilidad&#8221; hasta principios del siglo XX, se identifica un punto nodal en la publicación del Ars Conjectandi de J. Bernoulli a principios de siglo XVIII, en donde se propuso de forma original tratar el campo completo de las conjeturas probables mediante el herramental matemático de la doctrina de las posibilidades. El artículo busca comprender el Treatise keynesiano como una reacción a dicho proyecto encarnado en el siglo XVIII por la escuela clásica laplaciana y en el XIX por la escuela frecuentista. Tras presentar los principales argumentos de Keynes en contra de la concepción de la probabilidad como una entidad necesariamente medible y, por ende, tratable mediante el herramental matemático de la doctrina de las posibilidades, se extraen reflexiones sobre la relevancia y actualidad del Treatise.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract. A hundred years after the publication of A Treatise on Probability, by J. M. Keynes, this article inquires about its relevance in the history of the concept of probability. After reviewing the emergence and evolution of the modern concept of probability until the beginning of the 20th century, a nodal point is identified in the publication of J. Bernoulli&#8217;s Ars Conjectandi at the beginning of the 18th century, where it was proposed for the first time to treat the entire field of probable conjectures through the mathematical tools of the doctrine of possibilities. This article seeks to understand the Treatise as a reaction to this project embodied in the 18th century by the Laplacian classical school and in the 19th century by the Frequentist school. After presenting Keynes&#8217;s main arguments against the conception of probability as a necessarily measurable entity and therefore treatable through the mathematical tools of the doctrine of possibilities, reflections are drawn on the relevance and topicality of the Treatise.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Keynes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tratado sobre probabilidades]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[historia de la probabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mensurabilidad de la probabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Bernoulli]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Keynes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Treatise on Probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[history of probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probability measurement]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bernoulli]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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