<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0188-6266</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Acta universitaria]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Acta univ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0188-6266</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Guanajuato, Dirección de Investigación y Posgrado]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0188-62662016000300023</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15174/au.2016.882</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Pronósticos y series de tiempo de rendimientos de granos básicos en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Forecasts and time series of basic grains yield in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Delgadillo-Ruiz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Olivia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez-Moreno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pedro Pablo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leos-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salas González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José María]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdez-Cepeda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo Centro de Investigaciones Económicas, Sociales y Tecnológicas de la Agroindustria y la Agricultura Mundial (CIESTAAM) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Chapingo Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo Centro Regional Universitario Centro Norte (CRUCEN) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Zacatecas Zacatecas]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>26</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>23</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0188-62662016000300023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0188-62662016000300023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0188-62662016000300023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La metodología de series de tiempo fue empleada en el presente estudio para comparar diferentes métodos de pronósticos en series de rendimiento de granos básicos (maíz, frijol, trigo y arroz) en México, con el objetivo de predecir sus valores en el corto plazo. Los pronósticos se realizaron empleando los modelos Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (1,0,1) para maíz, Modelo de Brow con &#945; = 0.202 para frijol, Suavización Exponencial Simple con &#945; = 0.7576 para trigo y Modelo de Holt con &#945; = 0.5024 y &#946; = 0.0366 para arroz. Los resultados indican que en el corto plazo los rendimientos de maíz, frijol y arroz se incrementarán, mientras que los rendimientos de trigo se mantendrán constantes. Respetando estas estimaciones de rendimiento, manteniendo constante la superficie cultivada y el consumo per cápita de granos básicos, y considerando diferentes escenarios de población, a largo plazo México solo será autosuficiente en la producción de frijol. Así, los pronósticos obtenidos en este trabajo pueden ser utilizados en la toma de decisiones de producción y compra-venta de granos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Time series methodology was used in this study to compare different methods of forecasting in yields series of basic grains (maize, beans, wheat and rice) in Mexico, with the objective of predict their values in the short term. Forecasts model was ARIMA (1,0,1) for maize, Brow Model with &#945; = 0.202 for beans, Simple Exponential Smoothing with &#945; = 0.757 for wheat and Holt Model with &#945; = 0.5024 and &#946; = 0.0366 for rice. Results indicate that in the short term yields of maize, beans and rice will increase; while wheat yields remain constant. In addition, under different scenarios of population, keeping constant acreage and per capita consumption of basic grains, Mexico will only be self-sufficient in the production of beans. Forecasts obtained in this study can be used in making production and buy-sale of grains decisions.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos estadísticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Box &amp; Jenkins]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Box &amp; Jenkins]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARIMA]]></kwd>
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</article-meta>
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