<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0188-4611</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigaciones geográficas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Invest. Geog]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0188-4611</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geografía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0188-46112024000200201</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14350/rig.60921</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La imposibilidad de pronosticar la extinción de un glaciar de montaña]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The impossibility of forecasting the extinction of a mountain glacier]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Veracruzana Centro de Ciencias de la Tierra ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Xalapa-Enríquez Veracruz]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>114</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0188-46112024000200201&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0188-46112024000200201&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0188-46112024000200201&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La criosfera, en particular la parte correspondiente a los glaciares de montaña, ha sido un claro indicador del cambio climático. En los últimos años se han documentado extinciones de glaciares en todo el mundo. Al menos dos factores han sido identificados como las principales causas de su retroceso y desaparición: la temperatura y las precipitaciones. Sin embargo, son también otros elementos, y las diferentes combinaciones entre ellos, los que determinan la evolución espacio-temporal de estos dinámicos cuerpos de hielo. La extinción de los glaciares, y sus impactos ambientales, ha preocupado a diferentes sectores de la población; esto ha provocado que entusiastas ambientalistas se aventuren a pronosticar el tiempo de vida que les queda a estos glaciares, sobre todo cuando hay decenas o cientos de miles de personas que dependen de su caudal de agua. Este artículo describe los diversos factores que impulsan la evolución de los glaciares y demuestra que, a diferencia de otros elementos ecosistémicos, los glaciares no tienen una evolución lineal. Por ello, la glaciología no pretende «pronosticar», sino comprender la compleja interacción entre factores climáticos y geomorfológicos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The cryosphere, particularly the part corresponding to mountain glaciers, has been a clear indicator of climate change. In recent years, glacier extinctions have been documented throughout the world. At least two factors have been identified as the main causes of their retreat and disappearance: temperature and precipitation. However, it is also other elements, and the different combinations among them, that determine the spatio-temporal evolution of these dynamic ice bodies. Glacier extinction, and its environmental impacts, has worried different sectors of the population; this has caused enthusiastic environmentalists to venture into forecasting the remaining life span of these glaciers, especially when there are tens or hundreds of thousands of people who depend on their water flow. This paper describes the diverse factors that drive glacier evolution, and shows that unlike other ecosystemic elements, glaciers do not have a linear evolution. For this reason, glaciology does not seek to "forecast", but to understand the complex interaction between climatic and geomorphological factors.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[retroceso glaciar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[glaciares de montaña]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[clima y geomirfologia de montaña]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[glacial retreat]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mountain glaciers]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate and geomorphology of mountain]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cuffey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Paterson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. S. B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The physics of glaciers]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Academic Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Furukawa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wettlaufer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Snow and ice crystals]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Physics today]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>60</volume>
<numero>12</numero>
<issue>12</issue>
<page-range>70-1</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hugonnet]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McNabb]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Berthier]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Menounos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nuth]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Girod]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kääb]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Nature]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<volume>592</volume>
<numero>7856</numero>
<issue>7856</issue>
<page-range>726-31</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Julio-Miranda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Delgado-Granados]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Huggel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kääb]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Impact of the eruptive activity on glacier evolution at Popocatépetl Volcano (México) during 1994-2004]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>170</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>86-98</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lorenzo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Los glaciares de México]]></source>
<year>1964</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Granados]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. O.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estimación de la temperatura basal del &#8220;Glaciar Norte&#8221; del volcán Citlaltépetl, México. Modelo para determinar la presencia de permafrost subglaciar]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Estudios Geográficos]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<volume>80</volume>
<numero>287</numero>
<issue>287</issue>
<page-range>e019</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Delgado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Distribution and current status of permafrost in the highest volcano in North America: Citlaltepetl (Pico de Orizaba), Mexico]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Geofísica internacional]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>59</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>39-53</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Bedrock outcropping in the accumulation zone of the largest glacier in Mexico (Glaciar Norte of Citlaltépetl), as evidence of a possible accelerated extinction]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Mountain Science]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>338-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Delgado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Occurrence and characteristics of snowfall on the highest mountain of Mexico (Citlaltépetl volcano) through the ground&#8217;s surface temperature]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></source>
<year>2024</year>
<volume>38</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Granados]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Welsh]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yoshikawa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Glacial reconstruction and periglacial dynamics at the end of Late Pleistocene on the surface of Cofre de Perote volcano, México: a climatological retrospective]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Mountain Science]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>9</numero>
<issue>9</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alanís]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pech]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chagoya]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Distribution and spatio-temporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Sierra de Otontepec Ecological Reserve, Veracruz, Mexico, through GIS modeling]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></source>
<year>2023</year>
<volume>37</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vuille]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Francou]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wagnon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Juen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kaser]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mark]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bradley]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers: Past, present and future]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Earth-Science Reviews]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>89</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>79-96</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zagorodnov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nagornov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[O.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thompson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Influence of air temperature on a glacier&#8217;s active-layer temperature]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Annals of Glaciology]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>43</volume>
<page-range>285-91</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
