<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362024000100045</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.53367</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Why did numerical weather forecasting systems fail to predict the Hurricane Otis&#8217;s development?]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guillermo-Montiel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez-López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Benjamín]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ochoa-Moya]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Abraham]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Quintanar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ignacio Arturo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cabos-Narváez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[William David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Alcalá  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Madrid ]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>38</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362024000100045&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362024000100045&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362024000100045&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Hurricane Otis (HO) occurred in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), intensifying rapidly and unexpectedly, making landfall near Acapulco at 06:25 UTC on October 25, 2023 as a category five hurricane. Official and unofficial national weather forecasts (NWF) failed to predict HO&#8217;s development, trajectory, and intensification. To analyze the reasons for the failure of the NWF, we conducted two experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with Global Forecast System (GFS) and fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data as initial condition (IC). Our results showed that some fields in the GFS data, such as relative humidity, convective available potential energy, and even sea surface temperature, were more favorable for the development and intensification of the disturbance compared to ERA5. However, the three-dimensional structure of the wind field in the ETP in GFS did not contribute to the initial development of HO. Additionally, we explored the WRF&#8217;s sensitivity to different model configurations to simulate the trajectory and intensity of the hurricane using a coupled ocean-atmosphere system composed of WRF and a three-dimensional upper-ocean circulation model based on Price-Weller-Pinkel. Our numerical experiments involve modifications in the IC, cumulus parameterizations (CP), roughness coefficients, spatial resolutions, different time steps, and an idealized coupled model. The sensitivity test reveals the significance of the CP scheme, where the Kain-Fritsch was the only one that helped simulate the HO properly, altogether with increased spatial resolution. Furthermore, ocean-atmosphere coupling improves the prediction of the landfall time and location of the HO. However, no experiment captured the intensity or rapid intensification of HO.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El huracán Otis (HO) ocurrió en el Pacífico tropical oriental (PTO), intensificándose rápida e inesperadamente, y tocó tierra cerca de Acapulco a las 06:25 UTC del 25 de octubre de 2023 como huracán categoría cinco. Los pronósticos meteorológicos nacionales (PMN), tanto el oficial como los no oficiales, fallaron en la predicción del desarrollo, la trayectoria y la intensificación del HO. Para analizar las razones que causaron este fallo de los PMN, realizamos dos experimentos utilizando el modelo Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), con datos del Global Forecast System (GFS) y la quinta generación del reanálisis atmosférico del ECMWF (ERA5) como condición inicial (CI). Nuestros resultados mostraron que algunos campos del GFS, como humedad relativa, energía potencial convectiva disponible e incluso la temperatura superficial del mar fueron más favorables para el desarrollo y la intensificación de la perturbación en comparación con ERA5. Sin embargo, la estructura tridimensional del campo de viento en el PTO del GFS no contribuyó al desarrollo inicial del HO. Además, exploramos la sensibilidad del WRF a diferentes configuraciones del modelo para simular la trayectoria y la intensidad del huracán utilizando un sistema acoplado océano-atmósfera compuesto por el WRF y un modelo tridimensional de circulación del océano basado en Price-Weller-Pinkel. Nuestros experimentos numéricos implican modificaciones en la CI, parametrizaciones de cumulus (PC), coeficientes de rugosidad, resoluciones espaciales, diferentes pasos de tiempo y un modelo acoplado idealizado. Las pruebas de sensibilidad revelan la importancia del esquema de PC, donde el Kain-Fritsch fue el único que ayudó a simular el HO adecuadamente, así como el incremento de la resolución espacial. Además, el acoplamiento océano-atmósfera mejora la predicción del tiempo de llegada a tierra y la ubicación del HO. A pesar de esto, ningún experimento capturó la intensidad o la rápida intensificación del HO.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Hurricane Otis development]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[initial condition]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ERA5 reanalysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[cumulus parameterization scheme]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[coupled ocean-atmosphere system]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[WRF-PWP]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
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