<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362024000100030</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.53320</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Population growth in Mexico and its impact on mitigation components of nationally determined contributions]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sandoval García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edgar Roberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Matsumoto Kuwabara]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yasuhiro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Tecnológico Nacional de México División de Ingeniería Logística ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cuautitlán Izcalli Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>38</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362024000100030&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362024000100030&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362024000100030&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT By 2050, most of the population in Mexico will be between 44 and 50 years old. By 2100, the population is expected to decrease to 116 million, 9% less than in 2020. Mexico recently ratified its commitment to face the planetary climate crisis by updating its nationally determined contribution, increasing its goal of reducing greenhouse gases from 22% to 35% by 2030. The main goal of this article is to estimate carbon emissions in 2018 (pre-pandemic conditions) of selected mitigation components and compare them with estimated values for 2030, considering the population variation under a business-as-usual scenario. If growth takes place at an exponentially compounded rate, this projection exercise shows that by 2030, the transport sector (private and public) could reduce its CO2 emissions by 21%, the residential sector will increase its CO2 emissions by 4.1%, and the municipal waste sector would increase its methane emissions by 10%. It is advisable to quantify the differentiated impact of climate change on the lives of diverse population groups, and after evaluating the effectiveness of solutions that reduce the exposure of these groups to climate change, to enhance their role as agents of climate action in terms of decarbonization and/or resilience to its effects.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN En 2050 la mayor parte de la población en México tendrá entre 44 y 50 años de edad. Se espera que para 2100 la población disminuya a 116 millones, 9% menos que en 2020. Recientemente, México ratificó su compromiso para enfrentar la crisis climática planetaria al actualizar su contribución nacional determinada, aumentando su meta de reducción de gases de efecto invernadero de 22 a 35% para 2030. El principal objetivo de este artículo es estimar las emisiones de carbono en 2018 (condiciones previas a la pandemia) de componentes de mitigación seleccionados y compararlos con los valores estimados para 2030, considerando la variación de la población en un escenario tendencial. Si el crecimiento se da a una tasa compuesta exponencialmente, este ejercicio de proyección indica que para el 2030 el sector transporte (público y privado) podría reducir sus emisiones de CO2 en 21%, el sector residencial aumentaría sus emisiones de CO2 en 4.1%, y el sector de residuos municipales aumentaría sus emisiones de metano en un 10%. Es recomendable cuantificar el impacto diferenciado del cambio climático en la vida de diversos grupos de población y posteriormente evaluar la efectividad de soluciones que reduzcan la exposición de estos grupos al cambio climático, potenciando su rol como agentes de acción climática en términos de descarbonización y/o resiliencia a sus efectos.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[population growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[carbon emissions]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mitigation component]]></kwd>
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</article-meta>
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