<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362023000300126</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.53182</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Effects of climate change on the potential distribution of a dominant, widely distributed oak species, Quercus candicans, in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brizuela-Torres]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diego]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villavicencio-García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raymundo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ruíz-Corral]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Ariel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cuervo-Robayo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Angela P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara Centro Universitario de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Zapopan Jalisco]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Department of Conservation Biology and Social-Ecological Systems ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Leipzig ]]></addr-line>
<country>Germany</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Leipzig ]]></addr-line>
<country>Germany</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Biología Departamento de Zoología]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Ciudad de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>37</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362023000300126&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362023000300126&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362023000300126&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Mexican temperate forests are among the most biodiverse in the world. At present, they face anthropogenic pressures and climatic changes. Quercus candicans is a canopy-dominant, widely distributed species common in the moist habitats of these ecosystems. Its ecological importance, habitat vulnerability, and wide distribution make it a useful model of the vulnerability of Mexican tree forest species to climate change. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate future climatic suitability for this species and its potential range shifts under two emissions scenarios and three-time frames. We also identified areas where novel climates could arise and where predictions should be interpreted cautiously. Additionally, we analyzed how climatic suitability could change across the national protected areas system. In both emissions scenarios, areas with suitable climatic conditions were predicted to experience a net reduction of more than 40% by 2070. This corresponds to more than 100 000 km2 becoming climatically unsuitable. In the national protected areas, we forecast a contraction of approximately 30%. Climatic novelty increased considerably in the higher emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), accounting for 10% of the Mexican temperate mountains, compared to 1% on RCP 4.5. Areas of expansion of suitability not intersected by novel climates occur in areas highly affected by land-use change and other anthropogenic pressures. Effective protection of temperate forests&#8217; tree species such as Q. candicans would need to allow migrations across altitudinal gradients, as areas of stability and expansion of climatic suitability are forecasted to occur at higher altitude sections of mountain ranges.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Los bosques templados mexicanos se encuentran entre los más biodiversos del mundo. En la actualidad enfrentan presiones antrópicas aunadas al cambio climático. Quercus candicans es una especie dominante en el dosel, ampliamente distribuida, común en las zonas húmedas de estos ecosistemas. Su importancia ecológica, la vulnerabilidad de su hábitat y su amplia distribución lo convierten en un modelo útil para evaluar la vulnerabilidad de las especies forestales arbóreas mexicanas al cambio climático. Se utilizó la modelación de nicho ecológico para estimar la idoneidad climática futura de esta especie y los posibles cambios de su distribución potencial en dos escenarios de emisiones y tres periodos de tiempo. También se identificaron las áreas donde podrían surgir nuevos climas y donde las predicciones deben interpretarse con cautela. Además, se analizó cómo podría cambiar la idoneidad climática en todo el sistema nacional de áreas protegidas. En ambos escenarios de emisiones, se predijo que las áreas con condiciones climáticas adecuadas experimentarían una reducción neta de más del 40% para 2070. Esto corresponde a más de 100 000 km2 que potencialmente pueden ser climáticamente inadecuados. En las áreas protegidas nacionales, se proyecta una contracción de aproximadamente 30%. Los climas nuevos, es decir, aquellos no presentes en la actualidad, pueden aumentar de manera considerable en el escenario de mayores emisiones (RCP 8.5), representando el 10% de las montañas templadas mexicanas, en comparación con el 1% en el RCP 4.5. El incremento en áreas idóneas que no se entrecruzan con nuevos climas ocurre en zonas altamente afectadas por el cambio en el uso de la tierra y otras presiones antrópicas. La protección oportuna y eficaz de las especies arbóreas de bosques templados (como Q. candicans) debería permitir migraciones a través de gradientes altitudinales, ya que se proyectan áreas de estabilidad e idoneidad climática en las secciones de mayor altitud de las cadenas montañosas.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ecological niche model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[novel climates]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ExDet]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[kuenm]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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