<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362023000200299</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.53037</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Fuzzy cognitive maps to explore the repercussions of less precipitation on the water supply service of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Olvera-Fuentes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Norma Elizabeth]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gay-García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>36</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>299</fpage>
<lpage>316</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362023000200299&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362023000200299&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362023000200299&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Currently the drinking water supply service system of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) faces serious problems in its operation, which generate highly negative impacts on the impacts on the environmental, social and provider sectors of this system. Given the presence of climate change, we consider the possible scenario in which a decrease in average annual precipitation occurs in the area. To evaluate its impact on each of the sectors, the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) associated with each of them was constructed. This framework allowed the study of a system whose available information presented large ranges of uncertainty, in addition to being highly complex. Based on the results obtained, we present a mitigation measure for each sector, in order to provide efficient actions to decisions makers. The mathematical simulation was carried out programming in Python.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Actualmente la operación del sistema de servicio de abastecimiento de agua potable de la Zona Metropolitana de la Ciudad de México (ZMCM) enfrenta serios problemas, los cuales generan impactos altamente negativos en los sectores ambiental, social y de abastecimiento de este sistema. Dada la presencia del cambio climático, consideramos el posible escenario en el que se genere una disminución de la precipitación media anual en la zona. Para evaluar su impacto en cada uno de los sectores se construyó el mapa cognitivo difuso (MCD) asociado a cada uno de ellos. Este marco permitió el estudio de un sistema cuya información disponible presentaba amplios rangos de incertidumbre, además de ser altamente complejo. Con base en los resultados obtenidos, presentamos una medida de mitigación para cada sector, con el fin de proponer acciones eficientes a los tomadores de decisiones. La simulación matemática se realizó mediante programación en Python.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Fuzzy cognitive maps]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[decrease in average annual precipitation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico City Metropolitan Area]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Python programming]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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