<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362021000300255</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.52794</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[A climate analogue approach to understanding the future climates of six western South American capital cities]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pinzón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Reinhardt Erwin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nakaegawa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tosiyuki]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hibino]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Kenshi]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Takayabu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Izuru]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Tecnológica de Panamá Centro de Investigaciones Hidráulicas e Hidrotécnicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Panamá</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Panamá</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,The University of Tokyo Institute of Industrial Science ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Japan</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Japan Meteorological Agency Meteorological Research Institute ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Japan</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>34</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>255</fpage>
<lpage>266</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362021000300255&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362021000300255&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362021000300255&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Future climate analogues were identified for six capital cities in western South America using a novel nonparametric technique and ensemble experiments. We applied the MRI-AGCM3.2H model with a horizontal resolution of approximately 60 km, three convection schemes, four sea surface temperature distributions, and two initial conditions. All ensemble experiments were conducted under scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, in which cumulative emissions are similar to those of the RCP 6.0 scenario. The majority of future analogue cities were at lower latitudes than their respective target cities. In general, all analogues of target cities had similarity scores of 0.1-0.3. Of the six analogues, four were located in central and southern Africa, whereas the remaining two were located in western South America. Projected seasonal variations in surface air temperature and precipitation in Santiago, Chile are similar to the current climate in Cape Town, South Africa, and the climate analogue for La Paz, Bolivia, is found in Oruro, Bolivia. The non-parametric method used in this study can be applied to a variety of impact assessments under a changing global climate.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Se identificaron análogos climáticos futuros para seis ciudades capitales en el oeste de Sudamérica utilizando una novedosa técnica no paramétrica y experimentos de conjunto. Se aplicó el modelo MRI-AGCM3.2H con una resolución horizontal de aproximadamente 60 km, tres esquemas de convección, cuatro distribuciones de temperatura de la superficie del mar y dos condiciones iniciales. Todos los experimentos de conjunto se realizaron con el escenario A1B del Informe Especial sobre Escenarios de Emisiones, en el que las emisiones acumulativas son similares a las del escenario RCP 6.0. La mayoría de las ciudades análogas futuras estaba en latitudes más bajas que sus respectivas ciudades objetivo. En general, todos los análogos de las ciudades objetivo tuvieron puntajes de similitud de 0.1-0.3. De los seis análogos, cuatro se ubicaron en África central y meridional, mientras que los dos restantes se ubicaron en América del Sur. Las variaciones estacionales proyectadas en la temperatura del aire superficial y la precipitación en Santiago, Chile, son similares al clima actual en Ciudad del Cabo, Sudáfrica, y el análogo climático de La Paz, Bolivia, se encuentra en Oruro, Bolivia. El método no paramétrico utilizado en este estudio se puede aplicar a una variedad de evaluaciones de impacto en un clima global cambiante.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[western South America]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[multi-ensemble]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate analogue]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[surface air temperature]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[precipitation]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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