<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362020000400337</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.52751</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Implications of 1.5 and 2.0 ºC additional warming for wheat yield using a gridded modeling approach]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fahad]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Muhammad]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ahmad]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ishfaq]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Athar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,PMAS-Arid Agriculture University Department of Agronomy ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Rawalpindi ]]></addr-line>
<country>Pakistan</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,COMSATS University Centre for Climate Research and Development ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Islamabad ]]></addr-line>
<country>Pakistan</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,COMSATS University Department of Meteorology ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Islamabad ]]></addr-line>
<country>Pakistan</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>33</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>337</fpage>
<lpage>355</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000400337&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000400337&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000400337&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The goal of limiting the increasing global mean temperature below 2.0 and possibly 1.5 ºC, was decided in the Paris Agreement of 2015. It is therefore important to understand the climate risk and impacts associated with 1.5 and 2.0 ºC additional warming scenarios. The current study investigates the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 ºC additional warming on wheat yield in Pakistan using a gridded modeling approach. The generated climate data by four GCMs under 1.5 and 2.0 ºC were acquired from the Half a Degree Additional Warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) scenarios group. The CERES-Wheat model was calibrated and evaluated using field data and then applied to the entire region of Pakistan. Model calibration results showed a close association between observed and simulated wheat yield with an error ranging from 0.52 to 1.36%. Climate change projections indicated that the mean temperature is expected to rise by 0.46 and 1.44 ºC in the 1.5 and 2.0 ºC additional warming scenarios in the GCMs, respectively. The spatial variations of precipitation range from -22.4 to 42.6% and 4.6 to 34.1% under the 1.5 and 2.0 ºC HAPPI scenarios, respectively. Higher precipitation was recorded in northern Pakistan as compared to central and southern Pakistan. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation will decrease the wheat yield by 3.2 and 4.7% in Punjab, 17.8% and 13.8% in Sindh province under 1.5 and 2.0 ºC additional warming, respectively. However, the wheat yield will increase by 4.7 and 13% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 9.4 and 15.3% in Baluchistan under 1.5 and 2.0 ºC additional warming, respectively.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La meta de mantener el incremento de la temperatura media global por debajo de 2 ºC y posiblemente de 1.5 ºC se adoptó el Acuerdo de París de 2015. Por ello es importante entender los riesgos e impactos asociados con escenarios de calentamiento mayores a las temperaturas mencionadas. El presente estudio investiga el impacto de un calentamiento adicional de 1.5 y 2 ºC en el rendimiento de cosechas de trigo en Pakistán usando modelación reticular. Los datos generados por cuatro modelos de circulación general (GCM, por sus siglas en inglés) por debajo de 1.5 y 2 ºC se adquirieron del grupo HAPPI de creación de escenarios. El modelo CERES-trigo se calibró y evaluó con datos de campo y después se aplicó a la región de Pakistán. Los resultados de la calibración del modelo muestran una estrecha relación entre el rendimiento de trigo observado y simulado, con un margen de error de 0.52 a 1.36%. Las proyecciones de cambio climático indican que se espera un incremento de 0.46 y 1.44 ºC en la temperatura media en los escenarios de calentamiento adicional de 1.5 y 2 ºC de los GCM, respectivamente. Las variaciones espaciales de precipitación varían de -22.4 a 42.6% y de 4.6 a 34.1% en los escenarios HAPPI de 1.5 y 2.0 ºC, respectivamente. Se registró mayor precipitación en el norte que en el centro y sur de Pakistán. Los cambios de temperatura y precipitación proyectados provocarán una disminución en el rendimiento del trigo de 3.2 y 4.7% en Punjab y de 17.8 y 13.8% en la provincia de Sind en los escenarios de calentamiento adicional de 1.5 y 2.0 ºC, respectivamente. Sin embargo, el rendimiento del trigo se incrementará en 4.7 y 13% en Jaiber Pastunjuá y en 9.4 y 15.3% en Baluchistán en los mismos escenarios.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate impacts]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[gridded modeling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[HAPPI scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[wheat]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Pakistan]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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