<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362020000300215</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.52430</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arce Romero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Monterroso Rivas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro Ismael]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús David]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Palacios Mendoza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miguel Ángel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Navarro Salas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Elda Nohemí]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López Blanco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde Álvarez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ana Cecilia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Wageningen University and Research  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Wageningen ]]></addr-line>
<country>Netherlands</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo Departamento de Suelos ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Texcoco Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático Dirección de Gestión de Riesgos y Adaptación al Cambio Climático ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Environmental Change Consulting  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>33</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>215</fpage>
<lpage>231</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000300215&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000300215&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362020000300215&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Climate change is considered a serious threat to food security worldwide. In this study, yields of maize, beans, wheat, soybean, sorghum, barley and potato were modeled with 28 future climate change scenarios. Our results reduce the information gap that is frequently reported for Mexico and will contribute to better knowledge on spatial impact of climate change. We applied FAO AquaCrop model for 22 case studies located in 14 states of Mexico. Climate change scenarios were: CNRM, GFDL, HADGEM, MPI and Ensemble REA, with two radiative forcing concentrations (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) and three time horizons (2015-2039, 2045-2069, and 2075-2099). The results show decreases in yields of most of the case studies as a consequence of a decrease in the amount and distribution of precipitation. Maize yield in warm dry climates could decrease up to 84% in the most severe scenarios. Beans could decrease from 10 to 40% in the north of the country, while in the northwest a 15% decrease in wheat yield is predicted. Soybeans could benefit, with increases from 15 to 40%. Sorghum and potatoes are expected to decrease for all the case studies, while barley would have increases and decreases. The results suggest differentiated impacts according to crops and regions studied. We concluded that agriculture requires better focused strategies and policies (attention on crop and spatial distribution).]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN En el presente estudio se modelaron rendimientos de maíz, frijol, trigo, soya, sorgo, cebada y papa en las condiciones actuales y con 28 escenarios de cambio climático. La metodología utilizó la calibración del modelo de cultivo AquaCrop de la FAO para 22 estudios de caso puntuales ubicados en 14 estados de México. Los escenarios climáticos considerados fueron cinco modelos (CNRM, GFDL, HADGEM, MPI y Ensamble REA), dos concentraciones de forzamiento radiativo (4.5 y 8.5 W m-2) y tres horizontes de tiempo (2015-2039, 2045-2069 y 2075-2099). Los resultados muestran decrementos en los rendimientos de la mayoría de los estudios de caso, como consecuencia de una disminución en la cantidad y distribución de la precipitación. El rendimiento de maíz en climas cálidos y secos podría disminuir hasta en 84% respecto al escenario base según los escenarios más severos. El frijol podría tener decrementos de 10 a 40% en el norte del país, mientras que en la zona noroeste se prevé un rendimiento del trigo 15% menor. La soya podría beneficiarse, con incrementos de 15 a 40%. Respecto del sorgo y la papa se esperarían decrementos generalizados para todos los estudios de caso, mientras que la cebada tendría incrementos y decrementos según la zona de estudio. Los resultados urgen a la toma de acciones con miras a la adaptación diferenciada para cultivos y zonas específicas. La agricultura de temporal en México es altamente vulnerable a los impactos del cambio climático.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[food security]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[maize]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[beans]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[wheat]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[soybeans]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[sorghum]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[barley]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[potatoes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[AquaCrop]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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