<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362019000300197</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.2019.32.03.03</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Management and ensemble of future climate scenarios for specific agricultural systems in the municipality of Nilo, Cundinamarca (Colombia)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ospina-Noreña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús Efren]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bermeo Fúquene]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paula Andrea]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Darghan Contreras]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barrientos-Fuentes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Colombia Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias Departamento de Agronomía]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bogotá D.C. ]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>197</fpage>
<lpage>211</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362019000300197&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362019000300197&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362019000300197&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT This study proposes a method for averaging future climate scenarios from multiple global models through a multivariate statistical analysis. The method gives more weight to the most relevant variables in a specific system, which is associated with the availability of water resources. The proposal considered a climate baseline (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunlight) registered in stations near the municipality of Nilo, Colombia (illustrated as a case study), and the future climate scenarios derived from 11 models and 4 scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (representative concentration pathways, RCPs). Additionally, other variables derived from the current and future water balances (WB) were taken into consideration, such as: deficit (Def), potential evapotranspiration (ETo), real evapotranspiration (ETR), excess (Exc), and other indexes which determine the aridity of a region such as the Lang&#8217;s index (IL) and the hydric availability index (HAI). Results suggest that by 2070, precipitation may decrease by 14.0% in the arithmetic average and 25.3% in the weighted average with respect to the current condition (1292 mm yr-1), decreasing to 1111.5 and 964.8 mm, respectively. Additionally, the arithmetic average projects an increase of 2.3 ºC in the average temperature, while the weighted average projects an increase of 2.7 ºC. The proposed methodology is a useful tool to analyze multiple climate change scenarios.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Este trabajo propone un método para promediar escenarios de cambio climático a partir de varios modelos globales mediante un análisis estadístico multivariado. El método propuesto confiere mayor peso a las variables más relevantes en un sistema específico, lo cual está vinculado con la disponibilidad de recursos hídricos. La propuesta considera un clima base (precipitación, temperatura, humedad relativa, velocidad del viento, luz solar) registrado en estaciones cercanas a la municipalidad de Nilo, Colombia (presentada como caso de estudio), y escenarios de clima futuro derivados de 11 modelos y cuatro escenarios de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (vías de concentración representativas). Adicionalmente, se tomaron en consideración otras variables derivadas de balances hídricos presentes y futuros: déficit, evapotranspiración potencial, evapotranspiración real, exceso y otros índices que determinan la aridez de una región como el de Lang y el de disponibilidad de agua. Los resultados sugieren que para 2070 el promedio aritmético de la precipitación podría disminuir en 14% y el promedio ponderado en 25.3% respecto a las condiciones actuales (1299 mm yr-1), llegando a 1111.5 y 964.8 mm yr-1, respectivamente. Adicionalmente, el promedio aritmético proyecta un incremento de 2.3 ºC en la temperatura promedio, en tanto que el promedio ponderado contempla un incremento de 2.7 ºC. Esta metodología es una herramienta útil para analizar múltiples escenarios de cambio climático.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[multivariate analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[water resources]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[weighted average]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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