<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362017000200163</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20937/atm.2017.30.02.06</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Estrada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martins]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Filipe]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Perron]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pierre]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>The Netherlands</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,University Institute of Lisbon Department of Quantitative Methods, ISCTE - IUL Business School ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Portugal</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Boston University Department of Economics ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Boston Massachusetts]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>30</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>163</fpage>
<lpage>187</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362017000200163&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362017000200163&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362017000200163&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded differently to the changes in the radiative forcing. Using recent econometric techniques, we can reconcile such differences and show that all sea and land temperatures share similar time series properties and a common underlying warming trend having a dominant anthropogenic origin. We also investigate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) and show that the differences in warming between hemispheres are in part driven by anthropogenic forcing but that most of the observed rapid changes is likely due to natural variability. The attribution of changes in ITA is relevant since increases in the temperature contrast between hemispheres could potentially produce a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and alter rainfall patterns. The existence of a current slowdown in the warming and its causes are also investigated. The results suggest that the slowdown is a common feature in global and hemispheric sea and land temperatures that can, at least partly, be attributed to changes in anthropogenic forcing.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Debido a la variabilidad interna de baja frecuencia, las tendencias del calentamiento observadas y subyacentes en series de temperatura pueden ser marcadamente diferentes. Las temperaturas hemisféricas están caracterizadas por importantes discrepancias en las tendencias no lineales observadas, sugiriendo que los hemisferios norte y sur han respondido de manera diferente a los cambios en el forzamiento radiativo. Mediante la utilización de técnicas econométricas recientes es posible reconciliar estas diferencias y mostrar que todas las temperaturas terrestres y oceánicas comparten propiedades de series de tiempo similares, así como una tendencia subyacente común de origen antrópico. También se investiga la asimetría inter-hemisférica de temperatura (ITA, por sus siglas en inglés) y se muestra que la diferencia en el calentamiento entre hemisferios se debe en parte al forzamiento antrópico, pero que la mayoría de los cambios rápidos observados son probablemente producto de la variabilidad natural. La atribución de cambios en la ITA es importante porque los aumentos en el contraste de temperaturas entre hemisferios podrían ocasionar un desplazamiento de la zona intertropical de convergencia y alterar los patrones de precipitación. También se investigan la existencia y causas de una reciente ralentización en el calentamiento. Los resultados sugieren que dicha lentificación es una característica común de las temperaturas hemisféricas globales tanto en tierra como en el océano, y que puede atribuirse al menos parcialmente a cambios en el forzamiento antrópico.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[warming hiatus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[structural break]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[co-trending]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[principal component analysis]]></kwd>
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