<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-5779</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Terra Latinoamericana]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Terra Latinoam]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-5779</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Mexicana de la Ciencia del Suelo A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-57792022000100702</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.28940/terra.v40i0.1338</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Riesgo para el cultivo de cacao por los cambios en la distribución potencial del fitopatógeno Moniliophthora perniciosa bajo escenarios de cambio climático en Ecuador continental]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Risk to cocoa cultivation due to changes in the potential distribution of the phytopathogen Moniliophthora perniciosa under climate change scenarios in continental Ecuador]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferrer-Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yarelys]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mafaldo-Sajami]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ayda Amelita]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Plasencia-Vázquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alexis Herminio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Urdánigo-Zambrano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Pablo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo Facultad de Ciencias de la Ingeniería ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Los Ríos Quevedo]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Campeche Centro de Investigaciones Históricas y Sociales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Campeche]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>40</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-57792022000100702&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-57792022000100702&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-57792022000100702&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Ecuador es un país privilegiado por sus condiciones geográficas y climáticas, que le permiten ser uno de los mayores productores de cacao fino y de aroma a escala mundial. Una de las limitantes más importantes para su cultivo son las enfermedades fungosas, como el fitopatógeno Moniliophthora perniciosa, que causa grandes pérdidas en la producción cacaotera. Esta investigación tuvo como objetivo evaluar el riesgo del cultivo de cacao ante los cambios de distribución geográfica potencial de M. perniciosa bajo escenarios de cambio climático en Ecuador continental. Se obtuvieron datos de presencia del patógeno de la literatura científica y Niche Toolbox, y con variables bioclimáticas, seleccionadas de acuerdo con su ecología, se modeló su distribución potencial con MaxEnt. Con los mapas binarios del fitopatógeno y la capa de uso del suelo para el cultivo de cacao, se determinaron los sitios donde ambas especies coinciden espacialmente. El modelo de M. perniciosa fue transferido a Ecuador continental en el presente y a diferentes escenarios de cambios climático. El área de distribución del patógeno fue comparada entre los escenarios actuales y futuros para identificar las pérdidas, ampliaciones y estabilidad. El mayor rango de ampliación y contracción se da en el escenario extremo RCP 8.5 2070, con 10 392 km2 y 540 km2 respectivamente. Hay un mayor rango de estabilidad durante los escenarios futuros RCP 4.5 2050 con 30 929 km2 y 2070 con 30 908 km2. Actualmente, el fitopatógeno se distribuye de manera potencial en el 74 % del área ocupada por plantaciones de cacao y en el futuro todos los escenarios indican un aumento. Las medidas de prevención, manejo y control deben incrementarse para mantener estable la producción de cacao y no afectar la economía a nivel nacional, ni de las familias de los productores.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Summary: Ecuador is a privileged country due to their geographical and climatic conditions, which allow it to be one of the largest producers of fine cocoa and aroma on a global scale. One of the most important limitations for its cultivation are fungal diseases, such as the pernicious phytopathogen Moniliophthora perniciosa, which causes large losses in cocoa production. This research aimed to assess the risk of cocoa in the face of potential geographical distribution changes of M. perniciosa under climate change scenarios in continental Ecuador. Pathogen presence data were obtained from the scientific literature and Niche Toolbox, and with bioclimatic variables, selected according to their ecology, and potential distribution was modeled with MaxEnt. With binary maps of the phytopathogen and the land use layer for cocoa cultivation, the sites where both species coincide spatially were determined. Model of M. perniciosa was transferred to continental Ecuador at present and to different climate change scenarios. The pathogen range was purchased between current and future scenarios to identify losses, extensions and stability. The highest range of expansion and contraction occurs in the extreme stage RCP 8.5 2070, with 10 392 km2 and 540 km2 respectively. There is a greater stability range during future scenarios RCP 4.5 2050 with 30 929 km2 and 2070 with 30 908 km2. Currently, phytopathogen is potentially distributed in 74% of the area occupied by cocoa plantations and in the future all scenarios indicate an increase. Prevention, management, and control measures must be increased to keep cocoa production stable and not affect the economy at the national level, nor of the families of producers.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[hongo fitopatógeno]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo de nicho ecológico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[plantaciones comerciales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Theobroma cacao]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[phytopathogenic fungi]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ecological niche model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[commercial plantations]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Theobroma cacao]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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