<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-5779</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Terra Latinoamericana]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Terra Latinoam]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-5779</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Mexicana de la Ciencia del Suelo A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-57792013000500305</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Vulnerabilidad de la producción del café (Coffea arabica L.) al cambio climático global]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Vulnerability of coffee production (Coffea arabica L.) to global climate change]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rivera Silva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María del Rayo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nikolskii Gavrilov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Iourii]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castillo Álvarez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marcial]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ordaz Chaparro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz Padilla]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gabriel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guajardo Panes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rafael Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro Regional Universitario del Sureste Centro Regional Universitario del Sureste ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Tabasco]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Xalapa Veracruz]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>31</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>305</fpage>
<lpage>313</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-57792013000500305&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-57792013000500305&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-57792013000500305&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La variabilidad del clima es el principal factor responsable de las oscilaciones anuales de la producción de café. Por ello, el presente estudio tuvo como objetivo evaluar la vulnerabilidad de la producción del cultivo de café (Coffea arabica L.) en la zona centro del estado de Veracruz, como una de las zonas productoras más importantes, atribuible a los escenarios climáticos existentes a mediados del siglo XXI, utilizando un modelo de desarrollo del cultivo en función de las características biológicas del café y las condiciones climáticas. Este tipo de modelo se aplica actualmente en varios países del mundo (pero no en México) y tiene preferencia en comparación con los modelos de regresión o modelos empíricos utilizados ampliamente en años pasados, debido a que considera detalladamente las particularidades fisiológicas del cultivo. El cálculo de los rendimientos de café con el modelo para las condiciones climáticas a inicios del siglo XXI y su comparación con los datos reportados por la SAGARPA señalan que los rendimientos calculados son confiables ya que el coeficiente de correlación entre los rendimientos calculados y observados fue igual a 0.81. La estimación de la vulnerabilidad del cultivo de café al cambio climático señala que a mediados del siglo XXI existe el riesgo de la pérdida media de la producción de café (Coffea arabica L.) de 7 a 10% debido principalmente a la disminución de la precipitación. El factor del cambio de la temperatura del aire tiene menor importancia. Tal conclusión contradice a los resultados de los trabajos anteriores, basados en modelos de regresión o modelos empíricos de acuerdo con los cuales la vulnerabilidad de café al cambio climático está relacionada principalmente al cambio de temperatura y en menor grado con los cambios de la precipitación.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Variability of climatic conditions is the main factor responsible for the annual oscillations of coffee production. Therefore, the present study was conducted to assess vulnerability of coffee (Coffea arabica L.) production to existing climate scenarios for the middle of XXI century in central Veracruz State, one of the most important coffee producing regions, using a model of crop development in terms of biological and climatic characteristics. This type of model is currently applied in several countries (but not in Mexico) and is preferred over the regression model or empirical models widely used in past years, because it considers the physiological particularities of the plant. The calculation of coffee yields with the model for the climatic conditions of the beginning of XXI century and its comparison with the data reported by the SAGARPA shows that the calculated yields are reliable since the correlation coefficient between calculated and observed data was 0.81. Assessment of vulnerability of coffee to climate change shows that there is a risk of a 7 to 10% loss in coffee production at the middle of XXI century principally due to decreased precipitation. The factor of change in air temperature is less important. This conclusion contradicts the results of previous studies based on the regression models or empirical models according to which vulnerability of coffee bean productivity to climate change is mainly related to temperature change and to a lesser degree to precipitation change.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[café]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[rendimiento]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo teórico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios climáticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[coffee]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[yield]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[theoretical model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate scenarios]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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