<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-7210</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios demográficos y urbanos]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Estud. demogr. urbanos]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-7210</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-72102011000100007</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La contemporaneidad del Ensayo o por qué no es conveniente olvidar a Malthus]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The Contemporary Nature of the Essay or Why One Should Not Forget Malthus]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morelos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mata Mata]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leovardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Anáhuac CADEN ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de México Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Urbanos y Ambientales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,ITESM  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>26</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>7</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-72102011000100007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-72102011000100007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-72102011000100007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El documento presenta un modelo basado en una ecuación diferencial Bernoulli con rezagos para formalizar la dinámica estable y con oscilaciones del principio de población de Malthus. El objetivo es emplear nuevas herramientas matemáticas y conceptuales que permitan hacer útiles los argumentos del Ensayo en el estudio de problemas demográficos actuales. La simulación aquí desarrollada para el caso de México ejemplifica una de las tantas formas en que se puede rehabilitar el principio para interpretar mejor las fases de la transición demográfica o las condiciones de estabilidad y convergencia de una población de ingreso medio en el largo plazo. Las principales conclusiones del modelo cuestionan la pérdida que ha significado para la demografía asimilarse a los modelos de crecimiento económico tradicionales sin incorporar el estudio de las oscilaciones.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The document presents a model based on Bernoulli&#8217;s lag differential equation to formalize the stable dynamics, with oscillations from Malthus&#8217; population principle. The aim is to use new mathematical and conceptual tools that will make the Essay&#8217;s arguments useful in the study of present-day demographic problems. The simulation undertaken here for the case of Mexico exemplifies one of the many ways the principle can be rehabilitated for a better interpretation of the phases of demographic transition or the conditions of stability and convergence of a middle-income population in the long term. The main conclusions of the model question the loss undergone by demography as a result of being assimilated into traditional economic growth models without incorporating the study of oscillations.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[principio de Malthus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ecuación diferencial con rezagos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estabilidad con oscilaciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[convergencia de trayectorias logísticas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[proyecciones de población]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Malthus&#8217; principle]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[lag differential equation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stability with oscillations]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[convergence of logistic trajectories]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[population projections]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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