<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-7210</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios demográficos y urbanos]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Estud. demogr. urbanos]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-7210</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-72102005000100103</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24201/edu.v20i1.1231</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La supervivencia más allá de cien años y más]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Survival beyond the Age of One Hundred]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ham Chande]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de la Frontera Norte  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>20</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>103</fpage>
<lpage>124</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-72102005000100103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-72102005000100103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-72102005000100103&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen México muestra una dinámica demográfica hacia el envejecimiento con evidencias de una acumulación de personas en edades extremas. Asimismo, la longevidad máxima, la forma de la mortalidad, las esperanzas de vida, las causas de muerte, los estados de salud y la presencia de discapacidades toman ahora matices importantes. Si bien los factores que determinan el envejecimiento en la cúspide de las edades y sus consecuencias aún aguardan identificación, conceptos, información confiable y metodologías apropiadas, es necesario realizar estimaciones y perspectivas aun con métodos indirectos. Los cálculos de mortalidad y estructuras de población del Consejo Nacional de Población y la reconstrucción demográfica a partir de 1930 constituyen un avance que permite hacer prospectivas. La versión del año 2000 incluye al grupo abierto de 100 años y más, desde 1930 hasta la proyección de 2050. Si bien para antes del año 2000 el límite de 100 años y más es suficiente para elaborar las estructuras de población y las tablas de mortalidad, desde ese año resulta insuficiente no sólo para realizar las proyecciones, por lo que el abultamiento de 100 años y más requiere un desglose en edades aún más avanzadas. Una proposición es asumir el comportamiento de Gompertz en la mortalidad a partir de la moda derecha de d  x , aunque con una sobreestimación de la mortalidad en la vejez extrema, con lo cual la sobrevivencia es mayor a la calculada. La distribución de d  x se ajusta a una curva normal en el lado derecho, cuya media se va incrementando en el tiempo mientras la desviación estándar disminuye, lo que corresponde a la forma esperada de acuerdo con experiencias y planteamientos teóricos. Esta forma permite conjeturar sobre la longevidad máxima, la cual al parecer es de 109 años en 2000 y de 114 en 2050. Si además se consideran los avances potenciales en programas de atención a la salud, los nuevos medicamentos y la terapia genética, se reitera que es una cota inferior.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Mexico shows a demographic dynamic towards ageing with evidence of an accumulation of persons of extreme ages. As a result, maximum longevity, type of mortality, life expectancy, causes of death, states of health and the presence of disabilities are becoming increasingly important. Although the factors that determine ageing at the cusp of ages and their consequences still require identification, concepts, reliable information and appropriate methodology, estimates and perspectives have yet to be carried out using indirect methods. The calculations of mortality and population structures of the National Population Council and the demographic reconstruction from 1930 constituted an advance that enabled demographers to make forecasts. The 2000 version included the open group of those ages 100 and over, from 1930 to the 2050 forecast. Although prior to the year 2000, the limit of 100 years and over was sufficient for drawing up population structures and mortality tables, from that year onwards, it proved insufficient for undertaking forecasts, meaning that the group ages 100 and over needs to be broken down into smaller sub-divisions. One suggestion is to assume Gompertz behavior in mortality on the basis of the right dx mode, even though this overestimates mortality in extreme old age, as a result of which survival rates are higher than those calculated. The dx distribution adjusts to a normal curve on the right side, whose mean increases over time, while standard deviations decreases, which corresponds to the expected shape based on experience and theoretical proposals. This shape enables one to make conjectures about maximum longevity, which was apparently 109 years in 2000 and 114 in 2050. If one also considers the potential advances in health care programs, new medication and genetic therapy, then this is definitely an underestimation.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[envejecimiento]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[longevidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demografía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ageing]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[longevity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[demography]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yue]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ching-Syang]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Oldest-Old Mortality Rates and the Gompertz Law: A Theoretical and Empirical Study Based on Four Countries]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ International Symposium Living to 100 and Beyond: Survival at Advanced Ages]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>Florida </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
