<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-7202</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios Económicos (México, D.F.)]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.)]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-7202</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-72022020000200213</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24201/ee.v35i2.402</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Nowcasting Mexico&#8217;s quarterly GDP using factor models and bridge equations]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Nowcasting del PIB de Mexico usando modelos de factores y ecuaciones puente]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gálvez-Soriano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oscar de J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Houston  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>35</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>213</fpage>
<lpage>265</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-72022020000200213&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-72022020000200213&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-72022020000200213&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: I evaluate five nowcasting models that I used to forecast Mexico&#8217;s quarterly GDP in the short run: a dynamic factor model (DFM), two bridge equation (BE) models and two models based on principal components analysis (PCA). The results indicate that the average of the two BE forecasts is statistically better than the rest of the models under consideration, according to the Diebold-Mariano accuracy test. Using realtime information, I show that the average of the BE models is also more accurate than the median of the forecasts provided by the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the median of the experts who answer Banco de México&#8217;s Survey of Professional Forecasters and the rapid GDP estimate released by INEGI.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Se evaluán cinco modelos de Nowcasting: un modelo de factores dinámicos (MFD), dos ecuaciones puente (BE) y dos basados en componentes principales (PCA). Los resultados indican que el promedio de los pronósticos de las BE es estadísticamente mejor que el del resto de los modelos considerados, de acuerdo con la prueba de precisión de pronósticos de Diebold-Mariano. Utilizando información en tiempo real, se encuentra que el promedio de las BE es más preciso que la mediana de los pronósticos de los analistas encuestados por Bloomberg, que la mediana de los especialistas que responden la encuesta de expectativas del Banco de México y que la estimación oportuna del PIB publicada por el INEGI.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[state space model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[principal component analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Kalman filter]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Diebold-Mariano test]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C38]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C53]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E52]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronósticos, modelos de estado espacio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis de componentes principales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política monetari]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[filtro de Kalman]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[prueba de Diebold-Mariano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C38]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C53]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E52]]></kwd>
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